USD/JPY rally to 149.40 an outlier, bias still lower
Aug 20 (Reuters) -The USD/JPY rally to 149.40 last Thursdaylooks to have been an outlier in summer holiday-affected trading. Monday's drop to 145.20 could be similarly explainedbut, given current central bank rateexpectations, lowerstill looks to be the path of least resistance.
Following the plunge to 141.68 on Aug 5, USD/JPY rebounded to 149.40, completing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracementof the July 3-Aug 5 drop from161.96 to 141.68. This could be the extent of the rebound with the pair subsequently falling sharply to 145.20.
A break below 145.20 and 145.00 could see tests towards 144.00 and towards the Aug 5low.
Rallies towards 150 will continue to be sold by Japanese exporters who have budgeted 144.77 for the current fiscal year and big manufacturers 142.68 nAZN1WA9FV.
Large option expiries on the145 handle this week and into the next will somewhatlimit moves down. Yeteven larger upside expiries, especially around 148.00 will help cap USD/JPY.
The downward bias will likely be sustained by dovish talk at the U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium beginning Thursday. Economists currently expect 25 basis-pointcuts at each of the Fed's remainingthree meetings this year nL4N3K3187.
In contrast, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a hawkish stance following a blockbuster second-quarterGDP report nL1N3K200I, nL1N3K118Y and signs inflation may have based nL4N3K303C.
The plunge in the Nikkei-225 index following the end-July BOJ tightening scared both the BOJ and government, but the index has since rebounded, rallying to 38,143.55 on Aug 16from 31,156.12 on Aug 5. Movestowards 40,000may be in the cards with heavydomestic and offshore buying again.
Related comments nL1N3K301K, nL1N3JS022, nL1N3JO02M. For more click on FXBUZ
USD/JPY: https://tmsnrt.rs/4dOr7Yd
JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential: https://tmsnrt.rs/4dsmbbP
Nikkei 225: https://tmsnrt.rs/3SVinax
Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai
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