US recap: EUR/USD dips as import prices take unlikely spotlight
AUD/USD-Indecision emerges after fresh highs are set
Sterling runs into resistance ahead of April high 1.2709 ahead of UK CPIUSD/CAD bid sub-1.36 ahead of daily cloud top at 1.3587
May 16 (Reuters) -The dollar index rose 0.12% as its slide following Wednesday's dovish U.S. data became a bit oversold, April U.S. import prices posted an unexpected surge and Fed speakers reaffirmed their position that more dovish data is needed before they can cut rates.
EUR/USD fell 0.13% after its 2.7% rally off April's lows was capped just below 1.09 on Thursday, near April's 1.0885 high ahead of the April 10 plunge on another hot U.S. CPI. That after Wednesday's U.S. CPI eased slightly as expected and retail sales were much weaker than forecast.
Losses were aided by shorter-term Treasury yields rising slightly more than bund yields. But EUR/USD is more positively correlated with the S&P 500 that made another record high, weighing on the haven dollar.
The biggest major currency mover was USD/JPY, which rose 0.25% after earlier being down 1.3% in follow-through from Wednesday's dollar drubbing.
The tide turned earlier in the day after Japan's dreary GDP data raised questions about the need or practicality of further BoJ policy normalization. Despite the yen near 34-year lows the overall economy isn't benefiting, because imported inflation is offsetting export growth and rising overseas asset valuations.
USD/JPY's rebound has so far held below where it was before soft U.S. data hit on Wednesday and bulls may not have much fresh data to advance on until late in the month.
A July BoJ rate hike is not as fully priced in as it was on Wednesday, though 24bp of hikes are seen by year-end. That compares with mostly priced in September and December Fed rate cuts, a June ECB rate cut, with two more by year-end, and the BoE only moderately more dovishly priced than the Fed.
Sterling fell 0.12% after its overbought 1.27005 high hit the daily cloud top and near April's twin 1.2709 peaks.
A somewhat less hawkish stance from MPC member Megan Greene ahead of the May 22 UK CPI release may have weighed. But as with EUR/USD, risk-sensitive sterling's intraday setback was mitigated by a slightly risk-on atmosphere, albeit within a rather risky geopolitical period.
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Editing by Burton Frierson
Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
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