Second Trump term might inflate USD/JPY to 180
USD/JPY bulls may have even higher targets than 165 and 170 to aim at if Donald Trump wins a second term in the White House in November, with scope for 180 to enter the conversation.
The probability of Trump winning November's U.S. presidential election has risen since President Joe Biden's dismal debate performance against Trump last week, with Monday's U.S. Supreme Court ruling that Trump has broad immunity from prosecution giving another boost to the former president.
The received wisdom is that U.S. inflation could run hotter with Trump back in the Oval Office than if Biden stays there, courtesy of Trump's plans for higher tariffs on imports. Should that prove to be the case, it may lead to the Federal Reserve pursuing more hawkish monetary policy than currently expected, to the benefit of the dollar.
USD/JPY rose to a fractionally fresh 38-year high by 161.75 on Tuesday, as higher US Treasury yields on Trump risk buoyed the greenback.
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(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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