Rupee likely to draw support from expected inflows amid rise in US yields
By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI, June 27 (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is likely to open slightly higher on Thursday, counting on inflows the inclusion expected from the inclusion of Indian bonds in a JPMorgan index in the face of a jump in U.S. Treasury yields.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee INR=IN will likely open at 83.54-83.55 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.57 in the previous session.
Dollar inflows spurred by the inclusion of Indian bonds into the JPMorgan emerging market index, with effect from June 28, are expected. The inflows related to the passive funds that track the index are expected on Thursday and Friday, according to traders.
"The inflows have been the main talking point and based on this, I would say interbank is sitting short (on dollar/rupee)," a currency trader at a bank said.
"There is debate around the size of the flows. Whatever the size, you should much larger intraday moves in the coming tow sessions."
The rupee on Wednesday witnessed a choppy session, moving in a range of 83.42-83.61. The decline to 83.60 was "not expected at all", the trader said.
Most Asian currencies dipped and the dollar index =USD was holding at a near two-month high. The 10-year U.S. yield climbed 8 basis points on Wednesday amid worries over inflation.
This week inflation numbers from Canada and Australia have surprised on the upside. The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, is due on Friday.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at a near two-week high.
"It is far from clear what the driver for this was. May be this is just a bit of profit-taking ahead of Friday's core PCE release," ING Bank said.
For Asian currencies, which have been struggling this year, the move higher in yields in an added headwind. The offshore Chinese yuan dropped below 7.30 to the dollar for the first time since November and the Japanese yen has weakened below 160.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee INRNDFOR= forward at 83.62; onshore one-month forward premium at 8 paisa
** Dollar index =USD at 105.96
** Brent crude futures LCOc1 down 0.9% at $88.68
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.34%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $296mln worth of Indian shares on June 25
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $128mln worth of Indian bonds on June 25
Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Rashmi Aich
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