Riksbank set for multiple rate cuts
July 3 (Reuters) -There is a good chance Swedish interest rates could end the year a full percentage point below the current 3.75% level as the Riksbank becomes more confident over the inflation path.
The minutes from the June policy meeting had more of a dovish tilt than the monetary policy statement and increasing concern for the Swedish labour market points to a series of rate cuts before the year is out.
Rate cuts in August and September could be followed by moves in November and December, taking the key interest rate to 2.75%.
External developments and the level of the Swedish crown could limit the number of rate cuts and currently the Riksbank's rate path points to two or three rate moves.
The dovish Swedish interest rate back drop suggests the Riksbank could move quicker than the European Central Bank and as such the SEK could underperform the EUR.
The 2024 outlook favours multiple Riksbank rate cuts and a steady to weaker crown with an eye on improving economic trends in early 2025 leading to improved investor confidence in the currency.
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EUR/SEK Daily Candle Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3xvVIug
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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