RBC gingerly lifts S&P 500 year-end target to 5700
STOXX 600 down 0.6%, CAC 40 down 0.8%
Oil & gas stocks lead, insurers lag
Wall St futures lower
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RBC GINGERLY LIFTS S&P 500 YEAR-END TARGET TO 5700
RBC Capital Markets raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index .SPX to 5700 from its previous target of 5300, an upside of 4.1% from yesterday's close.
Calling it a 'nervous raise' Lori Calvasina, RBC's head of global equity strategy research, wrote in a note, "The story we see in our data for 2024 is that the stock market has gotten a bit ahead of itself from a valuation perspective, as well as on some of our sentiment work, but that some of our tools (including one of our sentiment models) do still point to the potential for the S&P 500 to move a little bit higher between now and year-end."
RBC uses five drivers/models that include economy, valuation, cross-asset work, sentiment and political work to arrive at their year-end target with the cross asset and politics analysis showing the most constructive signals and valuation the least.
AI fever, coupled with a resilient economy and stronger earnings, has lifted the S&P 500 to fresh records this year following a run of more than 50% from its October 2022 low.
Calvasina however also sees a risks of a short-term pullback but describes it as temporary and limited though said "there's too much fog in the outlook" for the second half of 2024 and 2025.
"The US economy appears to be entering a soft patch, and that stock market volatility often picks up to some extent in Presidential election years," the note said.
"We assume any pullback will end up being a pothole on the path to recovery that will get back on track before too long," while also adding that if the economic forecast turns sour then there is a downside risk to their year-end call.
(Gokul Pisharody)
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TUESDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS
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DECISION DAY FOR FAR RIGHT'S RIVALS CLICK HERE
Vote share in first round results of France's parliamentary election https://reut.rs/3RQuaXh
Euro perks back up after first round of French election https://reut.rs/45OrcID
Europe https://tmsnrt.rs/4cg4Imd
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