Prices mostly flat as gas via Ukraine keeps flowing
Aug 19 (Reuters) -Dutch prices were largely flat on Monday morning as Russian gas continues to flow to Europe via Ukraine, despite fighting near the Sudzha transit hub, and as Europe's gas storages are well-filled, but British prompt prices rose amid some rising demand.
The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub TRNLTTFMc1 was up by 0.20 euro up at 39.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or 12.78 $/mmBtu, by 0842 GMT, LSEG data showed.
The October contract TRNLTTFMc2 was 0.30 euro lower at 40.20 euros/MWh.
The British October contract TRGBNBPMc1 was down 0.53 pence at 95 pence per therm, while the day-ahead contract TRGBNBPD1 rose by 7.5 pence to 87 pence per therm.
"Markets will continue to monitor developments at Sudzha, however as the current status quo is that neither side appear to have no intention to halt flows, damage to infrastructure is the chief concern," LSEG analyst Wayne Bryan said in a morning report.
Gas via Sudzha from Russia into Ukraine is still flowing and Russia's Gazprom GAZP.MM said it would send 42.1 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Monday, little changed from Friday.
Middle East developments should also be monitored, Bryan said, highlighting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Israel in the latest diplomatic push to achieve a ceasefire deal in Gaza.
Concerns over an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war that could interrupt gas flows from the Middle East continue to support prices.
Meanwhile, European gas storages were last seen 89.4% full, essentially reaching their 90% target which should be achieved by Nov. 1, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.
"Assuming that storage injections continue at their average rates, EU storage sites would be full by end of September," Greg Molnar, a gas analyst at the International Energy Agency said in a LinkedIn post, adding this was a bearish for prices.
Even with extensive maintenance coming up in Europe's key supplier Norway, storage should be full ahead of winter, a trader said.
Norway's Equinor shut down production at its Gullfaks C platform in the North Sea on Sunday following a well incident, but the impact on overall gas volumes is small at 6.6 million cubic metres (mcm) per day.
The latest forecasts for heating and for power demand in the UK were "moderately bullish for the period 22-29 Aug", LSEG's Bryan said.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 gained 0.12 euro to 72.64 euros a metric ton.
EXPLAINER-Is it the end for Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine? nL8N3JZ0H0
EXPLAINER-What happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine stops? nL8N3JV0SH
Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; Editing by David Holmes
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