Post-election VIX plunge suggests strong S&P 500 rally
Nasdaq up ~1.4%, S&P 500 up ~0.7%, Dow edges green
FOMC statement expected at 2 PM EST
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.7%
Dollar down; bitcoin ~flat; crude up; gold rallies ~1.5%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~4.36%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
POST-ELECTION VIX PLUNGE SUGGESTS STRONG S&P 500 RALLY
The sharp drop in Wall Street's most-watched index for market volatility and investor anxiety following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election tends to precede a rally in the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX, according to SentimenTrader's Dean Christians.
Former President Donald Trump secured a dramatic comeback to capture the White House after defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, along with Republicans seizing control of the U.S. Senate. Control of the House of Representatives is still undecided.
The Cboe Volatility Index .VIX plunged by about 21% after the election results became clear on Wednesday, a decline that has been seen only four other times since 1992, when data became available, according to Christians.
Data shows that whenever the VIX opened down 15% or more from the previous session's close, the S&P 500 showed a very strong tendency to rally over the next three and six months, advancing almost 90% of the time, Christians said.
Furthermore, the maximum losses incurred by the S&P 500 in the next six months stood at about 10%, with each decline linked to events such as the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2008, Flash Crash in 2010, and the European Debt Crisis in 2011. These scenarios are markedly different from the current macroeconomic backdrop, Christians said.
"Investors, relieved from the uncertainty of the election cycle, bought stocks, driving the S&P 500 up over 2% at the open to an intraday record high," Christians said. "Similar precedents resulted in a 100% win rate for the S&P 500 over the next six months, which dovetails nicely with the favorable seasonal period for stocks."
(Chibuike Oguh)
*****
FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
TWO LABOR MARKET METRICS FOR FED DAY - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX NEARS 6k AHEAD OF THE FED - CLICK HERE
U.S. ELECTION PULLS RETAIL TRADERS TO STOCK MARKETS - CLICK HERE
NASDAQ COMPOSITE: CHARGING TOWARD A BATTLE LINE - CLICK HERE
TRUMP CONSTRAINTS COULD DECIDE EUROPEAN EQUITIES' FATE - CLICK HERE
EUROPE RISES ON STRONGER MINING, AUTOS, BUT EARNINGS DRAG - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES RISE AHEAD OF JAMPACKED DAY - CLICK HERE
GERMAN POLITICAL DRAMA ADDS TO TRUMP RISKS FOR EUROPE - CLICK HERE
Post-election VIX plunge https://tmsnrt.rs/4eoXvAq
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
