Polish c.bank keeps rates stable as markets eye new forecasts
WARSAW, July 3 (Reuters) -Poland's central bank left its main interest rate on hold at 5.75% on Wednesday, remaining in await-and-see mode in anticipation of an acceleration in inflation in the months ahead.
National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski has ruled out rate cuts this year, unlike policymakerselsewhere in the region who have signalled that the cost of credit will continue to fall, albeit at a slower pace.
All analysts in a Reuters poll had expected rates to remain unchangedon Wednesday.
Attention now turns to the central bank's updatedinflation forecasts which will be published at 1400 GMT and Glapinski'spress conference scheduled for Thursday.
Piotr Bielski, head of economic analysis at Santander Bank Polska, said the new forecasts were unlikely to bring rate cuts closer, and that Glapinski was likely to stick to the hawkish tone he adopted in June.
Inflation in the biggest economy in the European Union's eastern wing stood at 2.60% in June, within the central bank's 1.5-3.5% target range and well below the double-digit levels seen in 2023.
However, the central bank has said it expected price growth to pick up again in the second half of the year, pushing inflation outside of its target range again.
Analysts polled by Reuters in June saw Polish rateson hold until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Central European policymakers have been put on alert by double-digit wage rises far outpacing the European Union average.
In Poland, the government also raised the value added tax on food staples from zero to 5% in April and raised an energy price cap for households this month.
Glapinski said in June that inflation could be over 5% at the end of the year.
PKO BP noted, however, that inflation in the second quarter had been lower than the central bank forecast in March, which might help bring forward the timing of the first rate cut.
"The lower starting point of the July projection should translate into a lower expected inflation path, which may change the interest rate path assumed by the Monetary Policy Council and the market."
Reporting by Alan Charlish, Pawel Florkiewicz, editing by Tomasz Janowski
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