Oil's sharp drop to undermine USD that many hold
June 5 (Reuters) -Oil's sharp drop will undermine the currencies of nations that produce oil like the United States, and with less inflation in the pipeline, central banks may ease sooner and lower rates further than currently expected. This could have a big influence on the dollar, which many traders have invested in this year.
Brent crude oil has rapidly dropped $15/bbl from near the peak of the long-term $70-100/bbl range toward its base, diminishing the profit of exporters like the United States, and changing the outlook for the U.S. interest rate.
The sudden decline for oil is badly timed for investors who have been encouraged to buy dollars with a view that the U.S. interest rate would stay high for longer.
Expectations that were centering on one U.S. interest rate cut toward the end of 2024 are shifting toward two rate cuts, with the first in September.
Judged by the extent of oil's slide, this view may be too conservative, and with traders sitting on a stockpile of dollars, there's cause to anticipate profit taking that could put the U.S. currency under a lot of pressure.
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Brent Crude oil https://tmsnrt.rs/3V8ub9J
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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