Novo Nordisk notches perfect 10
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Tech leads fallers
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NOVO NORDISK NOTCHES PERFECT 10
Novo Nordisk, Europe's largest company by market cap, looks set to have extended its run of monthly gains to 10 in May, currently eking out an almost 2% rise, but it hasn't all been plain sailing as competition in weight loss drugs heats up.
The company raised its outlook earlier this month and reported better-than-expected first quarter profits but warned that the price of Wegovy, its drug for weight loss, came "slightly down" due to increased volume and competition. Shares dipped 2.7%.
"The more recent volatile share price performance ... has been a reflection of the ongoing supply constraints and clinical data from emerging competitors in the space," said Sheena Berry, healthcare analyst at Quilter Cheviot.
One of those emerging competitors is U.S. drugmaker Amgen AMGN.O, who said they were "very encouraged" by data from their ongoing phase 2 trial of their weight loss drug MariTide.
"Our view is that there is more competition coming, pricing is under pressure and as such a lot of the future growth story is in the price," said Arnaud Girod, head of economics & cross asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux, about Novo Nordisk.
"A mild scenario could be that the stock is not going to do anything for a year, it might just do nothing," Girod added.
But even so, the market for weight loss drugs shows no sign of slowing.
In a note on Thursday, Goldman Sachs raised their forecast for total worldwide sales of next-generation anti-obesity medications to $130 billion by 2030, up from the prior forecast of $100 billion.
"Our expectation is that dominant share and market leadership are likely to be sustained by the two current leading commercial players," Goldman analysts said, referring to Novo Nordisk and U.S. peer Eli Lilly.
"We estimate that they will be in a position to retain ~80% share of the global market out through 2030."
(Samuel Indyk)
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