Norway's crown, the rate cut spoiler
Aug 7 (Reuters) -Norwegian inflation has been falling since May 2023 but the Norges Bank has maintained a hawkish policy bias and there is a possibility that interest rates may be raised one last time because of weakness in the crown.
Versus the EUR, the NOK is trading above its 2024 low point, 12.1320, and strongly above the May 2023 12.3020 low, a stand-out level since the COVID 13.2065 EUR/NOK peak. However, EUR/NOK has gained 60% in the last 12 years and the cross has appreciated around 28% since basing at 9.4355 in April 2022.
These numbers don't sit well with the Norges Bank and while currency weakness has the propensity to underpin domestic inflation, Norwegian rate cuts will not be on the central bank's radar.
Analysts expect the weak crown trend to push inflation higher over the next six to nine months. A resumption of the EUR/NOK bull run could force the Norges Bank to raise its rate path and a rate hike shouldn't be ruled out.
Norwegian inflation data for July is due for release on Aug. 9 and is expected to show core CPI at 3.3% year-on-year from 3.4% in June. Despite the drop from June's number, expectations are for prices to pick up again in August.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/NOK monthly candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3WEmj0q
Norway monthly core CPI chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3yG53jo
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
