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Nasdaq composite: Lagging internal strength remains a red flag



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Main U.S. equity index futures modestly red

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Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.8%

Dollar, crude up; gold dips; bitcoin off ~0.8%

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.28%

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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: LAGGING INTERNAL STRENGTH REMAINS A RED FLAG

The Nasdaq composite .IXIC rallied more than 1% on Tuesday to end at 17,717.654. With this, the tech-laden index ended a three-day losing streak, and closed less than 1% below its 17,862.232 June 18 record closing high.

But traders continue to fret over a lack of internal strength. Indeed, breadth has been especially weak. In fact, on Tuesday, the Nasdaq daily Advance/Decline line ended at a fresh record low.

Another measure of internal strength, the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index also remains on the back foot:



Looking back over the past year or so, this measure diverged ahead of the Nasdaq's two biggest sell-offs, which began in July 2023 and March 2024.

More recently, the NH/NL index diverged again. After peaking at 73.3% in early March, it then topped at 68.2% around mid-May.

On Tuesday, this measure finished at 38%, or its lowest level since May 3. It's also spent 20 of the past 21 trading days below its now descending 10-day moving average, which on Tuesday finished at 41.8%.

Thus, traders are on edge as it's an open question as to whether the IXIC can continue to defy the internal weakness.

The NH/NL index has a support line from its October 2023 low which is now around 22% and the April 2024 low was at 17.7%. The support line from early 2020 is now around 6%, and the October 2023 trough was at 4.8%.

If this measure can reverse back above its 10-DMA, and its June 13 high at 45.5%, it may suggest a reprieve as burgeoning internal strength may then add confidence in the sustainability of the composite's rise.

However, the resistance line from early 2021, which now resides around 73%, may remain an especially stiff barrier.


(Terence Gabriel)

*****



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IXICNHNLI06262024B https://tmsnrt.rs/4bjo8p8

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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