MS ups PTs across Italian banks on lower cost of equity, cuts BPM
** Morgan Stanley says the new monetary easing cycle could lead to lower cost of equity (CoE) for Italian banks, against a backdrop of renewed spread volatility, weaker national GDP, and hikes its PTs across the board
** As a lower rates environment will weaken NIIs, the broker reiterates its preference "for diversified fee growth that can sustain capital generation, distribution and capital optionality"
** "Accounting for slightly higher fee estimates and lower CoE, we raise our target prices for Italian banks by c. 8-10%," it says
** MS sees valuation upside around 30% for its top picks Intesa Sanpaolo ISP.MI and Mediobanca MDBI.MI, compared to a lower estimate of 20% for Banco BPM BAMI.MI, thus cutting its rating to "equal-weight" from "overweight"
** At 0750 GMT, Italy's banking index .FTITLMS3010 trades down 0.3%, with Banco BPM BAMI.MI down 2.4%, Intesa and UniCredit CRDI.MI both down 0.2%, while Mediobanca gains 0.3%
COMPANY | NEW RATING | OLD RATING | NEW PT | OLD PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Intesa Sanpaolo | no change | Overweight | EUR 4.70 | EUR 4.20 |
Mediobanca | no change | Overweight | EUR 18.20 | EUR 16.90 |
Banco BPM | Equal-weight | Overweight | EUR 7.70 | EUR 7.10 |
UniCredit | no change | Equal-weight | EUR 43.00 | EUR 40.00 |
Reporting by Enrico Sciacovelli
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