MAS to stay on hold in July, USD/SGD biased higher
July 22 (Reuters) -The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is likely to leave its foreign exchange policy settings unchanged on Friday, with no adjustmentto the slope, midpoint or width of the SGD NEER policy band. USD/SGD should continue to average around 1.5% above the assumed midpoint.
Core inflation rose 3.1% year-on-year in May, still a tad elevated, giving the MAS little reason to ease now. The data does not provide reason for the MAS to tighten either, after keeping policy on hold sinceits last tightening in October 2022.
Inflation is unlikely to deviate much from the 3% midpoint of the MAS's 2.5% to 3.5% forecast range in the near term. The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters on June 24 showed a consensus projection of 3%.June inflation data is due on Tuesday,ahead of the MAS policy decision, and the Reuters poll sees core inflation cooling slightly from May to 3.0%.
Yet policymakers remain wary of upside risks to inflation from geopolitical tensions, disruptions to global shipping, energy and food prices. Higher wages and employment growth could lead to inflationary pressure too.
The recovery in Singapore's GDPgrowth further reduces the need for MAS to ease policy. The economy grew 2.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to preliminary data.
TheMAS expects 2024 GDP growth to be closer to its 2%-3% potential range, above the 1.1% growth in 2023. The Ministry of Trade and Industry's official forecast range remains at 1%-3%.
USD/SGD is likely to stay firm above its March lows around 1.3300,in line with the stronger USD and bullish outlook for USD/CNH to rise to 7.30-7.35. USD/SGD risks a return to 1.3700 by the end of 2024.
For more click on FXBUZ
Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own. Editing by Sonali Desai
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
