Many Wall Street executives are worried about Trump but wary of Harris
By Michelle Price, Carolina Mandl and Lananh Nguyen
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) -Many Wall Street executives have reservations about backing either candidate in the U.S. presidential election, worried that former President Donald Trump's policies will hurt the economy but wary Vice President Kamala Harris will lean too far left.
While multiple Wall Street heavy-hitters including Bill Ackman, John Paulson and George Soros have backed a candidate, many other senior executives are still weighing the economic policies central to the closely fought race and the ramifications for legal and democratic institutions, according to conversations with two dozen executives in recent weeks.
Despite a track record implementing Wall Street-friendly measures, Republican candidate Trump's policies threaten to create economic and policy instability, many executives said.
While Harris would be a safe pair of hands, she has only been the Democratic candidate since late July when President Joe Biden exited the race and remains a big unknown, they said. Many worry the Vice President will continue Biden's regulatory crackdown on lucrative Wall Street businesses.
Among the executives were Republican and Democrat supporters, including a handful who are publicly backing Trump or Harris, and others with no obvious partisan affiliation.
"Most expect Trump to continue where he left off, which is certainly more populist, protectionist and aggressively deregulatory," said Bruce Mehlman, partner at bipartisan lobbying firm Mehlman Consulting with clients in all sectors.
"But they're eager to better understand who Harris is and what she believes," Mehlman said, adding it did not appear that Harris' Wednesday economic speech had offered more insight for Wall Street firms.
As with his first presidency, Trump is promising to cut taxes and regulations, but most executives said the benefits could be erased by his planned import tariffs which could spark inflation, while tax cuts could widen the U.S. deficit. Trump ramped up his planned tariffs in comments this week.
Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign National Press Secretary, said in a statement that Wall Street investors want Trump to win because they remember that his policies "fueled growth, drove down inflation, and kept more money in everyone's pockets."
Billionaire investor and Trump backer Paulson told Reuters on the sidelines of a September New York event at which Trump outlined his economic plan that tariffs would boost revenues, helping to reduce the deficit.
Harris' plan, which analysts predict would be better for the economy, calls for hiking taxes, likely denting company earnings and stocks but partly offsetting an expected widening of the deficit. She has said little on financial policy but has touted her tough stance on banks as a former prosecutor and said she will continue Biden's assault on hidden bank fees.
A Harris spokesperson pointed Reuters to endorsements by hundreds of economists and CEOs.
In an email to Reuters, billionaire entrepreneur and Harris backer Mark Cuban noted that stocks rose when company taxes were higher, adding: "Anything that is a step towards reducing the deficit is a plus." But he said that both candidates are making promises they may not be able to keep. "Neither candidate's policies have any details about how they would get passed."
For many firms, a Harris White House and Republican Senate, which would block tax increases and force Harris to pick moderates for top jobs, is the best-case scenario.
So far, donors tied to the securities and investment sectors have given $8.7 million to the Biden/Harris campaign versus about $3 million to Trump, data from nonpartisan donations tracker OpenSecrets as of Aug. 21 shows.
Those contributions, capped in the thousands of dollars, come from individuals and political action committees (PACs) and are not comprehensive because there are several other ways to route cash to support candidates.
STABILITY, POPULISM
In a nod to the policy whiplash and personnel churn of Trump's first presidency, his felony conviction and role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, some executives also worried Trump would undermine Democracy and the rule of law. A few flagged concerns about his stances on Federal Reserveindependence, immigration and abortion.
Michael Bright, chief executive of the Structured Finance Association, a Washington lobby group representing lenders and investors, said that in addition to Jan. 6, some of his members had soured on Trump due to his role in helping to overturn federal abortion rights when president.
"I would say financial services voters are split pretty evenly," said Bright, whom Trump nominated in 2018 to run government housing agency Ginnie Mae. Many will vote "with their hearts" for Harris, he added.
The role of populism in personnel picks was another theme. Several executives fretted Harris would stick with Biden's progressive agency heads, although a few said they believe she may be friendlier to the industry than Biden.
"She is practical and pragmatic," said Jon Henes, Harris' national campaign finance chair in 2020 and CEO of corporate consultancy C Street Advisory Group, adding Harris believes in sensible regulation that allows for transparency and certainty.
A more populist Trump and Republican party may pick inexperienced loyalists hostile to Wall Street to lead the agencies, some executives said, although others believe he would again pick traditional industry conservatives.
Trump's appointment of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick as co-chair of his transition team may be a good sign, some said. Lutnick is tapping his Wall Street network to staff a potential second Trump administration.
Lindsey Johnson, CEO of the Consumer Bankers Association, said Trump can "draw from a deep well of people that were in the Administration last time that have great experience in the financial industry."
Writing and reporting by Michelle Price in Washington D.C.; Reporting by Carolina Mandl and Lananh Nguyen in New York; Additional reporting by Douglas Gillison, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed Azhar, Laura Matthews, Pete Schroeder, Makailah Gause and Megan Davies
Editing by Nick Zieminski
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
