JPM upbeat on European Metals & Mining, but says China property still a risk
** J.P.Morgan sees favourable momentum for European metals and mining cos, but says while global PMIs are rebounding, China's property sector is still a key risk to European steel prices near term
** Broker expects upward momentum for PMIs to support further outperformance for M&M equities, with global ex-China PMI at 50.5 in March marking a second consecutive month in expansionary territory
** The pivot in global manufacturing PMIs in Feb/Mar, specifically US, China, India, and weak improvement in the Eurozone resulted in 15% outperformance of Metals & Mining (vs .SXXP) since March 5, it adds
** However, ongoing weakness in China's property sector saw 100Mt of China steel exports in March which indicates weak domestic steel demand, JPM says, not expecting new fiscal policy to ease
** The broker adds that recent US & UK prohibitions regarding Russian metal supply may also offer near-term upside volatility
** JPM ups Fresnillo FRES.L to "overweight" from "neutral," seeing strong consensus earnings upgrade potential and reduced political risk post-Mexico's June federal elections; raises PT by 50% to 750p
** It ups Boliden BOL.ST to "neutral" from "underweight" seeing fewer downside risks near term, given its Ronnskar rebuild capex and Odda over-runs; raises Dec'25 PT by 29% to SEK 335
** It maintains "overweight" on Anglo American AAL.L, Rio Tinto RIO.L, and Norsk Hydro NHY.OL
Reporting by Elsa Ohlen
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