JPM says extra pulp supply to weigh on prices for Nordic forestry firms
** J.P.Morgan expects difficulties for Nordic forestry firms in the short term due to a potential decline in pulp prices
** New pulp supply from Cerrado and Liansheng might push prices temporarily below cost support in the near term, JPM says
** Medium-term outlook is relatively positive, with no new major supply additions expected in 2026-2028, while the share price weakness would suggest continued pulp price weakness beyond 2024/2025, it says
** JPM downgrades Stora Enso STERV.HE to "neutral" from "overweight", saying the expected recovery in the Finnish firm's operating leverage was weaker than expected in Q2
** It favours UPM UPM.HE ("overweight"), pointing to high levels of free cash flow which imply potential for share buybacks or increased dividends in 2025/26
** It keeps "underweight" rating for Svenska Cellulosa SCA SCAb.ST, pointing to the "over-stated" book value of the Swedish group's forest assets
JPM'S RATINGS AND PRICE TARGETS:
COMPANY | RATING | OLD RATING | PT | OLD PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
UPM | overweight | n/a | 37.50 | 38.00 |
Stora Enso | neutral | overweight | 14.00 | 16.10 |
SCA | underweight | n/a | 135.00 | 146.00 |
Reporting by Tomasz Kanik
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