Japan's LDP to pick new leader to replace outgoing PM Kishida
Kishida's resignation triggered the leadership race
Koizumi, Takaichi and Ishiba are the frontrunners
Initial results expected around 1420 JST, run-off likely
Adds bullet points
By Sakura Murakami and John Geddie
TOKYO, Sept 27 (Reuters) -Japan's ruling party holds one of the most unpredictable leadership contests in decades on Friday, a race that could result in Japan's youngest or first female premier, or see a popular veteran succeed in his fifth and final leadership bid.
The scramble to replace current premier Fumio Kishida was sparked in August when he announced his intention to step down over a series of scandals that plunged the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) ratings to record lows.
Polls suggest three candidates have the edge in a record nine-strong field: ex-environment minister and heir to a political dynasty Shinjiro Koizumi, 43; economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; and former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67.
Whoever is chosen must quell anger at home over rising living costs and navigate a volatile security environment in East Asia fuelled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea.
The LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era and has a majority in parliament, must hold a general election by October 2025. If Koizumi wins, he has pledged to hold a snap election that could come as early as next month.
"It's safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi will do quite well, but I really cannot say who out of those three will win the race," said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at Tokyo University.
"I don't think we'll know until the very last moment."
The result from the ballot, compromised of votes from each of the LDP's 368 lawmakers and an equal number distributed among rank-and-file members, is expected around 1420 JST (0520 GMT).
If no candidate secures a simple majority - which is anticipated due to the wide field - a run-off poll follows between the two candidates with the most votes.
In the run-off, each lawmaker again gets one vote, but the share of the rank-and-file drops to 47 votes, one for each of Japan's prefectures. That result is due at 1530 JST (0630 GMT).
Traditionally, powerful party factions have swung in cohort behind favoured candidates, making it easier to predict who might prevail.
While the influence of party elders will still play a role, most of these factions were recently disbanded following a scandal over unrecorded political donations, making this vote harder to predict, say analysts.
FRONTRUNNERS
Polls suggest Koizumi, the telegenic son of a former prime minister who governed between 2001-2006, has the most support among lawmakers. However some of his campaign pledges, such as reforming Japan's rigid labour rules, appear to have dented his grassroots following.
If he prevails, he would become Japan's youngest premier, surpassing the country's first ever prime minister Hirobumi Ito, who took office aged 44 in 1885, according to official records.
Ishiba, by contrast, has proved popular among the rank-and-file but has courted controversy with his peers for going against the grain and challenging previous leaders, and has failed in four previous leadership bids. He has said he will not run again.
Takaichi, a hardline nationalist and advocate of deceased former premier Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" stimulus policies, could be the most consequential pick - not least because she would be the first female prime minister in a male-dominated society.
She has been a vocal critic of the Bank of Japan's efforts to raise interest rates further away from historic lows, and her election could spur a yen sell-off, market strategists say.
Her promise to reverse a trend of leaders avoiding the controversial Yasukuni war shrine if elected, could also sour relations with China, South Korea and others that view the site as a symbol of Japan's wartime aggression.
The last Japanese leader to visit the shrine, which commemorates war dead including those convicted by an Allied tribunal of war crimes after World War II, was Abe in 2013.
Reporting by Sakura Murakami and John Geddue; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
