India's 10-year bond yield below 6.80% with focus on cenbank decision, guidance
By Dharamraj Dhutia
MUMBAI, Oct 9 (Reuters) -Indian government bond yields declined in early trades on Wednesday after getting included in yet another global bond index, and as investors focussed on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision at 10:00 a.m. IST.
The benchmark 10-year bond yield IN071034G=CC was at 6.7918% as of 9:45 a.m. IST, compared with its previous close of 6.8077%.
"The market is showing a limited reaction to the inclusion, as all are now focusing on the monetary policy outcome, and if there is a dovish guidance or a change of stance, we would see the benchmark yield dropping to fresh lows," trader with a foreign bank said.
The central bank is expected to maintain a status quo on rates, while a small number of investors are betting on the probability of a change in stance to "neutral", opening the door to rate cuts as economic growth slows and global rates ease.
The RBI is likely to be less hawkish than in its previous monetary policy following softer domestic data, Radhika Rao, senior economist and executive director at DBS Bank in Singapore said earlier this week.
Global index provider FTSE Russell would include India's sovereign bonds in the Emerging Markets Government Bond Index from September 2025, potentially drawing billions of dollars into local bonds.
Indian bonds were on FTSE's watch list for the last three years and would represent 9.35% of the index on a market-value weighted basis. The market value of the index is $4.7 trillion, according to FTSE.
The announcement follows the inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan's debt index from June 2024 and in the Bloomberg Index Services from January 2025.
Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. bond yield stayed above the 4% mark, as strong jobs data have dashed hopes of sharp rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. The bets of a 25-bp rate cut in November are at 89%, while the bets of no reduction stand at 11%. FEDWATCH
Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala
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