How you could justify August's stocks sell off
STOXX 600 up 0.3%
U.S. futures flat
UBS shares up 3.7% after results
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com.
HOW YOU COULD JUSTIFY AUGUST'S STOCKS SELL OFF
The broad consensus after the equity sell off earlier this month is that markets over-reacted to signs of macro economic weakness.
A Goldman Sachs note from late Tuesday, however, sets out of a couple of things that could complicate this conclusion.
To be fair, they too think the recent moves look overdone relative to the change in their baseline economic forecasts, but they do flag a couple of potential wrinkles.
The first is while their central growth forecasts are little changed, their economists have upped their expectations of probability of recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 25%.
So the recession that markets were briefly pricing still isn't likely, but it is, they think, more likely than it was a few months ago. And, after the rebound, markets are generally not priced for a recession.
Their second point is that markets could have been in the wrong place to begin with, as the market largely shrugged off data weakness in recent months, seeing it as opening room for the Fed to cut.
It's "possible that the market had already "overshot" the macro beforehand and become too optimistic on growth before the recent growth scare," write Goldman.
(Alun John)
*****
FOR WEDNESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS
BETTER-THAN EXPECTED UK INFLATION NOT ENOUGH FOR SEPTEMBER CUT CLICK HERE
AND HAPPY AS THE SCREENS WERE GREEN CLICK HERE
COOLER-THAN-EXPECTED BRITISH INFLATION DATA BOOSTS THE MOOD CLICK HERE
MORNING BID: WELCOME TO THE CUTTING CLUB KIWIS CLICK HERE
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。