Harris betting odds increase in tight race with Trump
Main U.S. indexes gain, but off highs; Nasdaq now up ~0.6%
Energy leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Healthcare sole loser
Dollar, gold up; crude up ~3%; bitcoin down >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.93%
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HARRIS BETTING ODDS INCREASE IN TIGHT RACE WITH TRUMP
Vice President Kamala Harris' chances of winning the November U.S. presidential election against former President Donald Trump are rising, in a race that remains far too close to call, betting markets show.
With 90 days to go before the Nov. 5 vote, contracts for a Harris victory are trading at 56 cents, with a potential $1 payout, on the PredictIt politics betting platform. Trump contracts are at 46 cents, down from as much as 69 cents in mid-July.
That is the widest lead for Harris on PredictIt since she replaced President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democrat nominee.
Odds on other betting websites show Trump with a narrow and declining lead.
Oddschecker.com has odds for a Trump election victory at -101, meaning risking $101 could win $100, translating to about a 50% probability. Harris odds are at +112, meaning a $112 bet could win $100, equivalent to about a 47% probability.
Polymarket, a decentralize predictions market, has Trump at a 51% probability and Harris at 48%.
Recent increases in betting odds that Harris will win the election come as she and her newly selected vice presidential running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, launch a multi-day tour of battleground states.
Nottingham Business School Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, who studies politics betting, has found that, going back to 1868, betting markets correctly predicted the outcome of all U.S. presidential elections, except those in 1948 and 2016.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group DJT.O, majority-owned by Trump, are down 4% in Wednesday's session and are on track for their lowest close since April.
Trump Media is the parent company of social media platform Truth Social, and its shares have surged 48% in 2024, in part on bets Trump will win a second term as president.
(Noel Randewich)
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Betting odds https://tmsnrt.rs/4dzO6pW
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