FX options wrap - BoJ fear gauge, AUD setback risk, FX hedging
Uncertainty surrounding Wednesday's Bank of Japan policy announcement has increased related FX volatility risk premiums, with overnight expiry options trading at year-to-date highs.
Overnight-expiry JPY-related implied volatility is trading at its highest levels since the Dec. 19 BoJ announcment and reflects the additional realised FX volatility this event is expected to generate. Sub 1-month expiry USD/JPY implied volatility retains new highs since the BoJ intervention on April 29. Risk reversal contracts retain a much stronger volatility premium for JPY calls over puts, which shows USD/JPY's downside is still perceived as the most vulnerable side of the market.
Overnight AUD-related-option implied volatility was also higher on Tuesday as its expiry included Wednesday's Australian CPI data - potentially key to an RBA rate hike on Aug. 6.
Shorter-dated expiry options in other currency pairs are elevated - to cover the risk of additional FX volatility from Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement and Friday's U.S. NFP data.
There are billions of USD of 155.00 USD/JPY and 1.0850 EUR/USD strikes expiring this week. Related cash hedging flows could help to draw/contain spot markets if external events are unable to shift FX from its current confines.
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Overnight expiry USDJPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY FXO implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/3WIpsh1
Overnight expiry implied volatility in AUDUSD and AUD/NZD https://tmsnrt.rs/3WstQiL
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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