FX option implied volatility - why low isn't cheap
July 16 (Reuters) -Foreign exchange implied volatility is close to long term lows in many of the most commonly traded currency pairs, but that doesn't mean FX options are cheap.
FX volatility is an unknown yet key part of an option premium, so implied volatility is used as a substitute. Any disparity between FX implied and realised volatility over the life of a particular FX option therefore creates a trading opportunity.
Historic volatility is actual/realised volatility over certain periods in the past and can provide a fair value measure for implied volatility over those same periods in the future. Historic volatility is currently below implied volatility across many currency pairs and maturity dates.
Low implied volatility therefore reflects expectations of low FX realised volatility and deters buyers who may struggle to recover their option premiums, let alone break-even, or profit.
Shorter dated expiry implied volatility will typically increase before a key event to highlight the additional FX volatility that traders expect that event to generate (risk premium). Such examples were seen on Tuesday in NZD and GBP overnight expiry option implied volatility that now includes Wednesday's New Zealand and UK CPI data. nL1N3J808O nL1N3J807D
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/USD FXO 1-month implied volatility vs 1-month historic volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/3xYv5OA
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
