Foreign buying in JPM index-included Indian bonds tops 1 trillion rupees in 10 months
By Dharamraj Dhutia
MUMBAI, July 22 (Reuters) -Foreign investments in Indian government bonds that do not have any investment limit accelerated in the last few days, with the outlook for local debt remaining strong on bets of fiscal consolidation, interest rate cuts and favourable demand-supply dynamics.
Foreign investors net bought bonds under the Fully Accessible Route (FAR), most of which are a part of JPMorgan's emerging market debt index, worth 1.03 trillion rupees ($12.3 billion) in the last 10 months since the inclusion was announced, according to Clearing Corp of India.
These investors purchased papers worth 72 billion rupees on a net basis in the last seven sessions, up from 38 billion rupees a year earlier.
Positive demand-supply dynamics, controlled domestic inflation and expectations that the interest rate cycle has peaked, both in India and globally, is favouring domestic government bonds, said Parul Mittal Sinha, India head of financial markets at Standard Chartered Bank.
India will announce its federal budget on Tuesday amid hopes of a downward revision in the fiscal deficit target and gross borrowing from February's interim budget figures.
Higher spending can be funded through surplus transfers from the Reserve Bank of India and improved tax collections.
Clearer signs of inflation being under control and firm commitment to fiscal consolidation should encourage more investments, said Edward Ng, senior portfolio manager, Asian fixed income, Nikko Asset Management last week.
Indian bonds were included in the JPMorgan emerging market debt index on June 28, and even though flows slowed down in the first few days, they have now picked up pace.
"As index weightage increases, we anticipate inflows will rise. Positive real yields, stable currency, relatively high carry, and expectations of rate cuts, will see long-term foreign investors remain invested for an extended period," Lei Zhu, head of Asian fixed income at Fidelity International, said last week.
Another factor that continues to aid investments is a stable currency, and although the Indian rupee INR=IN slipped to a record low earlier in the day, it continues to be among the least volatile Asian currencies, making bond investments appealing.
($1 = 83.6570 Indian rupees)
No of trading sessions for every 100 billion rupees of inflow https://reut.rs/3YeWWVG
Over 50% of foreign inflow has been in long tenor bonds Over 50% of foreign inflow has been in long tenor bonds https://reut.rs/45v33Xi
Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Sonia Cheema
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