Fade the rebound in stocks and bonds - BCA Research
STOXX 600 up 0.1%
BT shares up on Drahi stake sale
Volatility ebbs
Wall St futures edge up
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
FADE THE REBOUND IN STOCKS AND BONDS - BCA RESEARCH
The rebound in European stocks and bonds is only temporary, according to BCA Research, which expects the carry-trade "blowup" to be the start before a more pronounced growth slowdown.
Europe's STOXX 600 index .STOXX is up over 4% from lows touched a week ago, when markets were fretting about a possible U.S. recession and the yen-funded carry trade coming to an end as Japan's currency strengthened.
Germany's 10-year bond yield DE10YT=RR, the euro area's benchmark, is up around 18 bps from its Monday low.
"Investors should fade the rebound in European equities and bond yields," write BCA Research analysts in a note published on Monday.
"The underlying trend in global growth is weakening, and central banks are unlikely to alter this downward momentum in time to prevent a recession," they say.
The firm says this will drag down earnings "significantly" and expects European earnings to decline between 10%-18%, with a central tendency near 14%.
Turning to bonds, BCA says the big move in yields off their lows was down to a decline in risk sentiment, but with growth set to worsen, they see more rate cuts than priced by the market next year.
"Such dovish surprises portend a rally in German bonds," BCA says. Bond prices move inversely with yields.
(Samuel Indyk)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
MARKETS SERENE BUT SENSITIVE AHEAD OF KEY US DATA CLICK HERE
SUMMERTIME SADNESS CLICK HERE
SMOOTH SAILING CLICK HERE
FUTURES IN THE GREEN CLICK HERE
MARKETS SHIFT TO HOLIDAY MOODCLICK HERE
European equities steadily higher https://reut.rs/3yMqn6S
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。