ECB to cut rates next week and December; shallower reductions in 2025
Corrects hyperlinks in paragraphs 10 and 11
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=EUECBD%3DECI ECB deposit rate forecasts
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=EUECBR%3DECI ECB refi rate forecasts
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=EUGDPQAP GDP forecasts
By Indradip Ghosh
BENGALURU, Sept 5 -The European Central Bank will cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 12 and again in December, according to a significant majority of economists in a Reuters poll who predict shallower rate cuts in 2025 than markets are expecting.
Although inflation falling to 2.2% in August, its lowest in three years, and slowing wage growth have given the ECB a green light to ease again next week, economists have held since April their view of a total of three reductions this year. Markets are pricing nearly four cuts.
ECB policymakers are divided over lingering pressures on inflation, which it targets at 2%, versus weak economic growth and a potential recession, sources close to the discussion told Reuters. That suggests policy decisions going forward could be complicated.
A median forecast from a smaller sample of economists in an Aug. 30 - Sept. 5 Reuters poll showed the probability of a recession in the next two years at just 30%, little changed since the start of this year.
Nearly 85% of economists, 64 of 77, predicted the ECB would reduce the deposit rate by 25 bps next week and again in December, taking the deposit rate to 3.25%.
Four respondents expected just one more reduction this year while eight predicted three.
"The slowdown in wages and weak economic activity seen in recent weeks increase the likelihood... for another official rate cut on Sept. 12," said Luca Mezzomo, head of macroeconomic analysis at Intesa Sanpaolo.
"The European market has once again been dragged down by the U.S. market, beginning to discount rate cuts at every meeting - too much for the gradual approach to the withdrawal of monetary tightening that seems to be the convergence point for the Governing Council."
CAUTIOUS APPROACH
With inflation in the common currency bloc expected to pick up slightly by year-end and remain above the ECB's 2% target at least until the second half of 2025, a cautious approach is likely warranted, analysts say.
Markets are currently pricing in more than 100 bps worth of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, starting this month, partly driven by weaker-than-expected July labour data and hints from Fed chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole that rate cuts were coming.
Most economists in a separate Reuters survey, who also have remained consistent in their outlook, predicted a 25 bps rate cut in each of the three remaining meetings this year.
The ECB will reduce the deposit rate three times next year, according to poll medians, reaching 2.50% by end-2025, much shallower than market pricing of around 170 bps of reductions.
"A key assumption is euro zone labour markets will remain relatively tight and wage growth will moderate only at a gradual pace," said Reinhard Cluse, chief European economist at UBS.
Although negotiated wage growth slowed last quarter to 3.55% from 4.74% in Q1, it remained above levels consistent with a 2% inflation target.
"We are sceptical about the more front-loaded rate cuts priced for Q4-24 and Q1-25. For the latter to be realised, we think the global economy would have to be weaker and/or euro zone inflation and wage dynamics more benign than our current base case scenario implies," UBS' Cluse added.
The euro zone economy, which grew 0.3% last quarter, will average 0.8% growth this year, the poll showed, before expanding 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Shaloo Shrivastava and Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan; Editing by Ross Finley and Alex Richardson
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。