Dow Industrials: 40k hurdle still looms large
U.S. equity index futures green: Nasdaq 100 up ~1%
Jul PPI MM, YY < estimates; ex-food/energy MM, YY < estimates
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.1%
Dollar ~flat; gold, crude slip; bitcoin up slightly
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dips to ~3.88%
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DOW INDUSTRIALS: 40K HURDLE STILL LOOMS LARGE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI continues to struggle to sustain strength above the 40k level.
Since first nearly tagging this psychological hurdle in mid-March of this year, the Dow has only managed four weekly closes above it:
Additionally, two of those weekly closes, at 40,003.59 and 40,000.90, were just barely over it.
Since hitting its record intraday high of 41,376 in mid-July, the blue-chip average quickly reversed. It sold off as much as 7% into last week's 38,499.27 intraday low.
That selloff stabilized just above the rising 40-week moving average, which now resides just over 38,500, though 40k continues to cap gains. The Dow ended Monday at 39,357.
Meanwhile, of concern to bulls, the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a momentum oscillator primarily used to trade trends, continues to deteriorate. It now stands at its lowest level since December 2023.
Of note, this oscillator diverged into the Dow's early 2022 top.
Thus, bulls will not only want to see the Dow vault above 40k, but also the MACD line cross above its signal line. Such a turn could signal increasing strength and add credence to expectations for a sustained advance.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
SHOCK HORROR: BRITISH WAGES ARE ACTUALLY RISING - CLICK HERE
WATCH RISING EUROPEAN GAS PRICES - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN STOCKS: NEAR TERM DOWNSIDE, LONG TERM UPSIDE - BOFA SURVEY - CLICK HERE
CALM WATERS AS UTILITIES SUPPORT STOXX, TRAVEL DRAGS - CLICK HERE
HEALTHY START AHEAD FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS - CLICK HERE
STABLE YEN LEADS NIKKEI HIGHER AHEAD OF US DATA TEST - CLICK HERE
DJI08132024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3SIGlWI
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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