Don't bank on earnings to boost luxury names
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DON'T BANK ON EARNINGS TO BOOST LUXURY NAMES
Europe's luxury sector .STXLUXP has struggled to find a constructive catalyst in recent months and analysts at JPMorgan think the upcoming reporting season will unlikely change that narrative.
"We expect Q2/H1 24 reporting to confirm relatively soft trends for the luxury sector, broadly in line with Q1," JPM writes.
"Looking into H2, based on current newsflow and latest sector trends, we think the re-acceleration might happen at a slower pace than what is currently factored into consensus and hence that earnings revision for the sector might still be skewed to the downside."
The firm sees "material downside risk" at Swatch and Hugo Boss, and to a lesser extent LVMH, Burberry and Kering, but sees "material upside" to consensus for Prada in the second half of the year.
(Samuel Indyk)
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