Currencies steady as Hungary central bank set to pause after 15 rate cuts
By Boldizsar Gyori
BUDAPEST, Aug 27 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were little changed on Tuesday ahead of a Hungarian central bank rate decision likely delivering the first pause in its policy easing after more than a year.
Hungary's central bank is expected to pause its easing cycle on Tuesday after 15 consecutive rate cuts beginning in May 2023, cautioned by Hungarian headline inflation HUCPIY=ECI rising to an annual 4.1% in July from 3.7% in June, with core inflation HUCPIC=ECI also accelerating.
Headline inflation peaked at 25% in early 2023.
Eleven out of 15 economists surveyed expected the European Union's highest benchmark rate to stay on hold on Aug. 27, keeping its base rate at 6.75%, and four expected a 25 bp cut, a Reuters poll showed.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= traded at 394.5 by 0759 GMT to the euro.
Analysts were weighing a dovish Fed and a weaker-than-expected Hungarian Q2 GDP reading to the central bank's communication which signaled a likely pause at its upcoming meeting.
"Hungary’s inflation data have not been impressive... at the same time, Q2 GDP was a disappointment; and conditions have got more dovish in the more developed countries... It may therefore make sense to implement any remaining rate cuts," Commerzbank said in a note.
"On balance, we lean towards no change. This is because EUR-HUF has returned to near 395.0," it said.
Hungary's central bank is scheduled to announce its decision at 1400 CET (1200 GMT) followed by a statement and press conference from 1500 CET (1300 GMT).
Elsewhere in the region, the crown hung around the psychological 25 per euro level, which it weakened past at the end of June.
Bank CSOB said it was unlikely to make a strong push to firm past the level.
"The reason is the stabilization of the eurodollar combined with worse sentiment in the domestic economy," bank CSOB said, following data on Monday showing consumer confidence was lower for a fourth straight month.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= traded at 4.28, with analysts expecting it to remain there with a slight chance of weakening but remaining in the range of 4.24 - 4.31.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 0959 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0550 | 25.0410 | -0.06% | -1.41% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.5000 | 394.5500 | +0.01% | -2.87% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2825 | 4.2835 | +0.02% | +1.45% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9762 | 4.9765 | +0.01% | -0.04% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0100 | 117.0400 | +0.03% | +0.20% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1585.40 | 1585.8100 | -0.03% | +12.12% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 73092.38 | 73467.13 | -0.51% | +20.57% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2393.94 | 2395.38 | -0.06% | +2.17% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18400.69 | 18452.97 | -0.28% | +19.71% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3680 | 0.0090 | +098bps | +1bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4950 | 0.0100 | +134bps | +1bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7600 | 0.0180 | +151bps | +2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.8590 | 0.0150 | +247bps | +2bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.1080 | 0.0280 | +295bps | +3bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3620 | 0.0100 | +312bps | +1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.92 | 3.55 | 3.29 | 4.40 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.63 | 6.23 | 5.84 | 6.53 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.73 | 5.40 | 4.93 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Boldizsár Győri in Budapest, Jason Hovet in Prague and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw; Editing by Bernadette Baum
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。