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Crown hits 8-week low with FX stuck at weaker levels



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PRAGUE, Oct 1 (Reuters) -The Czech crown hit an eight-week low against the euro on Tuesday as rising risk aversion and data showing continued decline in the region's manufacturing sector kept central Europe's currencies on the back foot.

The crown slipped as low as 25.280 to the euro in morning trade before steadying to 25.269 EURCZK= by 0926 GMT, 0.2% weaker on the day.

The region's currencies have been on a downward slope, mainly led by the crown and Hungarian forint after their respective central banks extended long-running interest rate-cutting cycles last week.

Focus will turn to the Polish and Romanian central banks this week, which are expected to stay on hold but markets will look for new clues on the rate outlook.

In the meantime, global markets have guided the region in recent sessions. The U.S. dollar rallied broadly on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against bets on more supersized interest rate cuts.

"The dollar's gains did not help," bank CSOB analysts said. "Global yields and the eurodollar before Friday's U.S. payrolls data will be a further dynamic (for currencies)."

A continued manufacturing downturn that is weighing on central Europe's economy is another drag on the region's currencies.

Purchasing Managers' Indices published on Tuesday showed activity in central Europe stayed in contraction territory last month, with weak demand mainly from key trading partner Germany the biggest reason.

Poland's zloty EURPLN= fell 0.1% to 4.28 to the euro while Romania's leu EURRON= and Hungary's forint EURHUF= were both steady, with the latter trading at 397.25 to the euro.

The forint, the region's worst performer this year with a 3.5% drop, is trading less than 1% away from the psychological 400 per euro level. The forint last weakened past that level in March 2023.

A trader in Budapest said risk aversion was higher after Israel's ground incursion into south Lebanon.

"There was some expectation that the forint could strengthen after the end-of-the-month weakening but this war is making that impossible due to risk aversion," the trader said.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1126 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.2690

25.2100

-0.23%

-2.25%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

397.2500

397.2500

+0.00%

-3.54%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2860

4.2830

-0.07%

+1.36%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9760

4.9764

+0.01%

-0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9300

117.0300

+0.09%

+0.27%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1609.41

1611.2100

-0.11%

+13.82%

Budapest

.BUX

74197.02

73896.18

+0.41%

+22.40%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2307.65

2324.13

-0.71%

-1.51%

Bucharest

.BETI

17616.02

17616.92

-0.01%

+14.60%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.1920

-0.0050

+115bps

+2bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.3430

0.0330

+144bps

+8bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6780

-0.0020

+161bps

+7bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.7280

0.0280

+268bps

+5bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.9000

0.0080

+299bps

+6bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.2760

-0.0060

+321bps

+6bps








FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS






3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.67

3.29

3.03

4.20

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.30

5.90

5.41

6.31

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.77

5.37

4.71

5.85

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************












Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw

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Other news and reports
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Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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