China Policy Watch-What the changing PBOC fix reveals
July 26 (Reuters) -China's swift and aggressive interest rate cutsthis week shocked investors, but there could be even more policy change to come, as Beijing pulls out the stops to revive the economy. FX policy might be the next lever to pull.
The central bank's daily yuan midpoint deserves more scrutiny than usual following Thursday's sharp USD/CNY drop linked to a Japanese yen surge, unwinding of carry trades, and suspectedChinese state bank intervention.
Friday's USD/CNY fix at 7.1270 was barely 0.1% below Thursday's,even though analysts' estimates were for a 0.6% drop.The discrepancy between the fix and forecasts slimmed to around 1000 pips from 1400, implying a greatly reduced damping factor was applied.
Thissuggests the People's Bank of China is trying to normalize the fix. If they had wanted more yuan appreciation (to deter bearish yuan speculators or to improve investor sentiment), they could have kept the damping factor withinits recent -1450/-1250 pips range. That would have plunged the fix to around 7.0900, triggering a shockwave in the FX market.
The takeaway is that China may want to step back fromartificially strong yuan benchmarks. If the USD keeps falling, the USD/CNY fix might only dribble lower, resulting in an eventual convergence with spot. That would create leewaywithin the daily trading band for the yuan to respondto negative risk factors.
Essentially, China may wantto create room for the yuan to weaken as a potential salve to higher U.S. trade tariffs - which seem likely no matter who wins the November presidential election.
For more click on FXBUZ
Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。