CEE currencies face divided outlook for upcoming 12 months
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURCZK= euro/koruna poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURPLN= euro/zloty poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURHUF= euro/forint poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRON= euro/leu poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRSD= euro/Serbian dinar poll data
By Boldizsar Gyori
BUDAPEST, Aug 7 (Reuters) -Central European currencies are facing diverse outlooks for the next 12 months, with the Polish zloty and Czech crown posting gains while the forint and the leu are expected to weaken, a Reuters poll found on Wednesday.
The region's currencies showed a mixed picture in August in terms of their annual performances, with the Hungarian forint down by 3.7% and the Czech crown losing 2.3%, but the Polish zloty gained 0.5% while the Romanian leu has been treading water.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= was forecast to weaken about 0.5% to 398.36/euro in 12 months, extending its accumulated losses over the year as the National Bank of Hungary was expected to deliver two or three more rate cuts in 2024, market pricing showed.
"We continue to see the 385-400 EUR/HUF range as the main playing field for the rest of the year," ING economist Peter Virovacz said.
"The NBH's openness to cutting rates further in conjunction with a weaker-than-expected economy indicates to us that the play will be more in the upper half of the range, with the risk of a temporary upside crossing of the 400 boundary."
Romania's leu EURRON= was expected to weaken around 0.8% to 5.02 against the euro in a year, as the country's central bank cautiously unwinds rate hikes. The leu has been under pressure from macroeconomic indicators.
"The Romanian central bank should not hurry with rapid policy easing," said Jakub Kratky, an analyst at Generali CEE, saying pressure on the leu should continue to be mainly due to external and domestic fiscal policies.
While the Czech crown EURCZK= was forecast to strengthen about 2.6% to 24.63 against the euro, the Polish zloty EURPLN= was expected to gain around 1% to 4.26 versus the euro, the poll showed.
(For other stories from the August Reuters foreign exchange poll click here)
Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Polling by Veronica Khongwir and Rahul Trivedi; Editing by David Holmes
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