Blackstone $16 bln AI deal borrows from SPAC boom
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
By Antony Currie
MELBOURNE, Sept 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) -How does a buyer avoid paying a huge multiple for a fast-growing company in a hot sector? A group led by Blackstone BX.N appears to have managed to do so with its agreed A$24 billion ($16.1 billion) offer on Wednesday to purchase Australia-based AirTrunk, which operates data centres for artificial intelligence developers like Microsoft MSFT.O and Amazon AMZN.O. The achievement requires borrowing some data-massaging techniques from the SPAC boom.
The target is privately-owned, mostly by Macquarie and Canada's Public Sector Pension Investment Board, so financial details are scant. The deal values AirTrunk's enterprise at some 21 times EBITDA, the Australian Financial Review reported, citing investment bankers. That would be in line with multiples for the next 12 months sported by some publicly traded rivals like Equinix EQIX.O and Digital Realty Trust DLR.N.
Trouble is, such comparisons are imperfect. The multiple assigned to Blackstone's biggest investment in Asia Pacific appears derived from run-rate EBITDA. This includes commitments from clients to do business for the next few years, per the AFR which dimisses itas "fake EBITDA".
That might be a tad harsh. All forecast earnings rely on pledges and guesswork to some extent, not least in new and rapidly expanding sectors. And Blackstone is well-placed to understand the data centre business. It has a $55 billion-worth portfolio of them and set up a joint venture last year with Digital Realty.
The distortions, though, appear to go on. Blackstone says the A$24 billion enterprise value includes not just the generally accepted components of equity and net debt, but also "capital expenditure for committed projects". This helps the sellers put a sum on the business that is twice what was expected when the sale process kicked off last year - and eight times the valuation their own 2020 purchase bestowed on it.
Such tweaks to accepted financial metrics are reminiscent of the focus on total addressable markets and optimistic multi-year growth estimates blank-cheque companies threw together to justify their purchases.
AirTrunk's success and the willingness of its clients to invest heavily in AI and data centres, ought to be a better bet - and not require similar tricks. That said, using a vanilla metric like expected 2024 earnings would spit out a purchase multiple of 87 times EBITDA, per AFR. Regardless of how confident of success, that's a hard number for any buyer to say out loud.
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CONTEXT NEWS
Blackstone and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board on Sept. 4 agreed to buy Australia-based data centre company AirTrunk.
In a statement, Blackstone said the deal has an "implied enterprise value" of more than A$24 billion ($16.1 billion), including capital expenditure for committed projects. Blackstone is the lead investor, with the CPPIB taking a 12% stake.
The duo is purchasing the business from Macquarie and Canada's Public Sector Pension Investment Board. They had bought 88% of AirTrunk in 2020, valuing the enterprise at A$3 billion.
Founder and CEO Robin Khuda, who owned most of the rest of the equity, will retain a smaller stake after the sale.
Blackstone said the deal represents its largest investment in the Asia Pacific region.
Editing by Una Galani and Ujjaini Dutta
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