Biofuels maker Neste's rating cut by RBC on weak renewable diesel market
** RBC downgrades Finnish biofuels maker Neste's NESTE.HE shares to "sector perform" from "outperform"
** Brokerage warns of increasing competition and uncertainty around potential of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
** Neste's operating environment has worsened as a much weaker renewable diesel (RD) market pulls down SAF prices - RBC
** Consumption is still mainly driven by voluntary demand; airlines and fuel suppliers have not ramped up SAF purchases as expected - brokerage
** RBC cuts its RD margin estimates for Neste to $463/t for 2024 and $525/t in 2025 (previously expecting $600/t in 2024 and $575/t in 2025)
** In May, Neste slashed its renewable margin forecast for 2024 to $480-650/ton, citing a decline in diesel prices
** RBC still expects capacity additions starting in 2025-2026, expecting competitors to build inventory ahead of mandates, which would narrow opportunities for Neste to command high prices
** Neste has not ramped up capacity as planned which led investors to question management credibility - brokerage
** RBC cuts PT by 45% to 21 euros; stock down 49% YTD, falling to 16.50 euros
Reporting by Marta Frackowiak
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