50 bps might still be in play - just not yet
Nasdaq advances ~0.7%, S&P 500, Dow post modest gains
Comm Svcs leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Real Est weakest group
Dollar dips; bitcoin up ~1%; gold up >1.5%; crude gains ~3%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.70%
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50 BPS MIGHT STILL BE IN PLAY - JUST NOT YET
After a set of mixed inflation data, a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve is all but priced in by financial markets, but that doesn't mean a bigger-than usual-rate cut is off the table - it just may come a little further down the line.
Traders are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 bps cut at the Fed's meeting next week, with just a 13% chance of a jumbo 50 bps cut, down from 50% a month ago.
According to LSEG interest rate probability data, markets have priced in over 100 basis points of policy easing by the Fed's last meeting this year, with just three meetings over this time.
That potentially implies a 50 basis point rate cut at some point later this year.
A string of weakening employment and economic growth data over the past few weeks had briefly led to rising bets on a larger-than-usual 50-bp interest rate reduction from the U.S. central bank.
Wells Fargo analysts see 50 bp cuts at both the November and December meetings, bringing the Federal Funds target rate down to 4.0%-4.25% by year-end.
"The labor market is still expanding, and with it the U.S. economy is too, but the former is hanging on a knife-edge at present," the analysts said in a note.
"If the labor market deteriorates further, the recent run of solid economic growth would be under threat... we think the FOMC will need to move to a less-restrictive stance of monetary policy in a relatively short period of time."
Similarly, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities sees a total of 75 bps of easing this year, but thinks a bigger rate cut at one of the meetings could be on the table.
"There's a good chance that we have a jumbo cut in December," Cardillo said.
(Lisa Mattackal)
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FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
INVESTMENT ADVISOR SENTIMENT TESTS OCTOBER 2023 LOW - CLICK HERE
HOPING FOR DEEP AND FAST FED RATE CUTS? BE READY TO BE DISAPPOINTED! - CLICK HERE
LARGE EQUITY FUND OUTFLOWS IN AUGUST A WARNING SIGN FOR STOCKS - CLICK HERE
THURSDAY DATA: 25 BPS LOOKS LIKE A LOCK - CLICK HERE
U.S. STOCKS SEARCH FOR DIRECTION, THOUGH GOLD MINERS SHINE - CLICK HERE
U.S. STOCK FUTURES DIGEST LATEST DATA DUMP - CLICK HERE
"BEAR IN A CHINA SHOP" - THE 3 MOST EXPOSED SECTORS - STIFEL - CLICK HERE
TOUGHER OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS - BERENBERG - CLICK HERE
MINERS AND TECH SHINE AS MARKETS AWAIT ECB - CLICK HERE
EUROPE SET FOR OPENING BOUNCE AHEAD OF ECB - CLICK HERE
TECH STOCKS CUE RALLY WHILE ECB LOOMS - CLICK HERE
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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