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Volatility eases a bit ahead of the key Fed meeting – Volatility Watch



  • Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar weakness lingers

  • Volatility in commodities stays elevated led by silver

  • Stock indices and bitcoin experience lower volatility

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as the market is preparing for the key Fed meeting on Wednesday that could deliver a previously unexpected 50bps rate cut. Amidst these conditions, yen pairs are experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as the yen continues to outperform its main counterparties on the back of divergent monetary policy.

Volatility in gold has increased somewhat, partly mimicking the very strong jump recorded in silver volatility as the latter enjoyed a strong weekly price increase. In the meantime, volatility of oil prices has dropped from the highest level of the past 30 days as the OPEC+ alliance decided to postpone the October planned production increase, and another hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is fueling supply concerns.

With most stock indices recording strong weekly gains, volatility across the board has dropped from elevated levels since stock investors appear to be enjoying the increased possibility for a stronger start of the Fed's easing cycle, despite concerns about the short-term outlook of the US economy.

Finally, bitcoin managed to rally, despite the lack of bullish news and Trump performing below par at the recent US presidential debate, with volatility easing considerably from the highest level of the past month.

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