Technical Analysis – EURUSD accelerates but not out of the woods yet
EURUSD picks up steam ahead of Thursday's ECB rate decision
Short-term risk skewed to the upside; key obstacles nearby
EURUSD accelerated to an almost four-month high of 1.0947 on Wednesday, recovering from June’s damage and recouping more than half of the 2024 downleg, which sent the price as low as 1.0600.
The pair, however, is not out of the woods yet. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024 downfall is currently under examination around 1.0932, while the trendline zone of 1.0960-1.0985 could also cease upside movements. If the bulls pierce through the latter, the rally could expand to 1.1045 and then towards 1.1100.
Technically the ongoing upleg is overdone according to the RSI and the stochastic oscillator as the indicators hover near their overbought levels. It’s also worth noting that the simple moving averages (SMAs) have yet to post any bullish crosses.
Hence, if selling forces resurface, the 50% Fibonacci mark of 1.0870 and the broken descending line at 1.0850 could immediately come to the rescue, delaying any extensions towards the simple moving averages (SMAs) at 1.0790-1.0809. Even lower, the pair might attempt to pivot near the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.0730 before testing the critical support trendline from October 2023 at 1.0680.
Summing up, EURUSD is looking bullish in the short-term picture, but there are a couple of obstacles which could still postpone any increases above 1.1000.
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