Daily Market Comment – Stocks buoyant ahead of US CPI, dollar holds steady
- Wall Street extends climb out of January pit, but futures ease as CPI data awaited
- Dollar edges sideways as traders seek direction from US price growth
- Gold hits two-week high amid uncertainty about inflation and Fed policy
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/perf_Feb10.png)
The improved risk tone is holding ahead of the all-important inflation numbers out of the United States later on Thursday. Stocks on Wall Street jumped higher for a second day on Wednesday, erasing the losses from late last week when markets were roiled from surging bond yields.
The rally in yields appears to be cooling and this is aiding the rebound in equities, which are proving to be surprisingly resilient given that nothing has changed since January when it comes to the monetary policy landscape. If anything, the panic should have intensified after the European Central Bank joined its peers in flagging a possible rate rise later this year.
However, investors were likely relieved when the ascent in the 10-year Treasury yield stopped just shy of the 2.0% level. Combined with the growing sentiment that the robust corporate earnings that equity traders have become accustomed to over the past several quarters are not under immediate threat, there is hope yet for the bull market.
The generally upbeat earnings are keeping Wall Street afloat and European earnings have been impressive too. Disney was the latest to report stellar Q4 results yesterday, with its stock soaring even before the earnings announcement that came after the market close.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 2%. Their futures were last trading slightly in negative territory, though stocks in Europe and Asia were mostly higher.
The caution could increase in the run up to the inflation prints, which are expected to show America’s consumer price index hitting a fresh 40-year peak of 7.3%.
Gold climbs, dollar flat as all eyes on US CPIA lot is riding on today’s CPI report as the Fed has become very data dependent and there is huge uncertainty around what path the federal funds rate will follow over the next year or two. Fed officials seem mostly opposed to hiking rates by 50 basis points in March but what happens after that is unclear. If there’s any sign in the numbers that inflation is peaking or is close to, Treasury yields could significantly pull back from their current elevated levels, weighing on the US dollar.
The dollar index is consolidating this week as investors weigh the varying price dynamics in each region. If inflation peaks in the US before other countries, that could dampen the greenback’s outlook in the short- to-medium term.
However, uncertainty about how much central banks will have to tighten has never been greater as the inflation picture is extremely foggy right now. This uncertainty could be what’s been driving gold higher lately as the precious metal is scaling a two-week top today.
The price of bullion appears to be testing familiar resistance in the $1,830/oz region. Whether it’s able to break above that barrier will likely depend on how strong the CPI data is.
Modest gains for euro and poundThe euro has also been stuck in a tight range this week as rate hike calls from the ECB’s more hawkish members have overshadowed President Lagarde’s more tempered tone on policy normalization.
The single currency was last trading around $1.1435. Sterling was firmer despite the Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill, calling for a “steady handed approach” to raising rates.
Higher commodities help aussie and kiwi maintain reboundThe Australian and New Zealand dollars were both extending their February upswing on Thursday, tracking the broader improvement in risk appetite.
Higher commodity prices have been bolstering the aussie and kiwi lately, with copper futures surging in the last two sessions. Oil prices, meanwhile, were steadier, edging slightly higher after finding support from the surprise drawdown in US crude oil inventories in yesterday’s weekly report. However, any upside is likely to be weak as investors are waiting to see whether there’s any prospect of Iranian sanctions being lifted should there be a deal with the West on Tehran’s nuclear program.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/calendar_Feb10.png)
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。