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US natgas prices slide 2% on rising output and oversupply of gas in storage



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By Scott DiSavino

July 19 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on a rise in output over the past month and the still high amount of gas in storage despite weeks of below normal injections.

That price decline came even though hot weather is expected to return in late July and early August that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming.

Analysts said there was about 17% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Traders said storage builds have been smaller than usual for nine of the past 10 weeks because several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2 year lows in February and March.

Higher prices in April and May, however, prompted some drillers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad. But with prices down about 20% so far in July, the market is watching to see if drillers start reducing the amount of gas they pull out of the ground.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.9 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.086 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:35 a.m. EDT (1435 GMT).

For the week, the contract was on track to drop about 11% after rising less than 1% last week. That would put the front-month down for the fifth time in six weeks, falling about 29% during that time.

Even though the November-March heating season is still months away, the market already seems to be giving up on extreme cold and price spikes this winter with the premium of futures for March trading at a record low to April NGH25-J25 of just 19 cents per mmBtu.

In other news, a worldwide tech outage crippled industries from travel to finance before services started coming back online after hours of disruption, highlighting the risks of a global shift towards digital, interconnected technologies.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.4 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through July 25 before turning hotter than normal through at least Aug. 3.

With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 105.9 bcfd this week to 104.2 bcfd to 103.6 bcfd next week before rising to 106.6 bcfd in two weeks when the heat returns. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.6 bcfd so far in July after Freeport LNG in Texas shut before Hurricane Beryl hit the Texas Coast on July 8, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Freeport started pulling in small amounts of feedgas this week as it slowly returns to service. The 2.1-bcfd plant was on track to pull in about 0.8 bcfd of gas on Friday, up from 0.5 bcfd on Thursday after pulling in almost no gas from July 7-15.

Week ended July 19 Forecast

Week ended July 12 Actual

Year ago July 19

Five-year average

July 19


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+24

+10

+23

+31


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,233

3,209

2,982

2,775


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

16.5%

16.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.09

2.13

2.64

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.27

10.24

9.58

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.20

12.09

11.44

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

2

2

1

2

3

U.S. GFS CDDs

236

230

243

213

204

U.S. GFS TDDs

238

232

244

215

207

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.1

102.2

101.7

102.0

95.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.2

7.9

7.8

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

110.3

110.1

109.5

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.4

1.8

1.8

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.8

7.1

6.9

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

11.7

11.0

11.7

12.7

8.6

U.S. Commercial

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.5

U.S. Residential

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

U.S. Power Plant

49.5

49.0

46.9

48.0

43.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.7

21.6

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.1

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

86.4

86.0

83.8

84.6

79.9

Total U.S. Demand

106.3

105.9

104.2

N/A

96.9

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

74

74

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

77

77

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jul 19

Week ended Jul 12

2023

2022

2021

Wind

8

5

10

11

10

Solar

5

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

6

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

45

47

41

38

37

Coal

19

18

17

21

23

Nuclear

16

17

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.00

1.98


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.23

1.34


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.21

3.15


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.21

1.27


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.70

1.65


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.53

1.85


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.71

2.68


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.50

1.03




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.81

0.76



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

33.50

49.50



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

35.50

46.75



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

25.00

28.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

80.00

63.75




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

68.50

66.25


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

58.50

47.25




Reporting by Scott DiSavino;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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