US natgas prices hit two-week high on hot weather outlook, higher demand forecasts
Adds latest prices
By Anushree Ashish Mukherjee
Aug 9 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures touched an over two-week peak on Friday, aided by forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand for the next week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.6 cents, or about 0.8%, to settle at $2.14 per million British thermal units.
The contract was up about 9% so far this week, its biggest weekly gain since June 7.
Natural gas is getting boosted by a return of some warm weather and the report was fairly supportive, "so production restraint talk along with expected better demand has given the market a little bit of support from these historically low prices," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities added 21 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 2.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 102.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
"Fundamentally, this market is currently riding a supportive wave driven by warmer temperature expectations during the next couple of weeks," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to fall to 104.0 bcfd this week from 109.9 bcfd last week, before rising to 105.1 bcfd next week.
Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remained at their highest level in over seven months, tracking European gains amid concerns over supply disruption.
Meanwhile, Dutch wholesale gas briefly traded at the highest level this year so far on Friday morning but later eased as Russian gas continued to flow via Ukraine despite ongoing fights near a key transit point in Russia.NG/EU
Week ended Aug 9 forecasts | Week ended Aug 2 Actual | Year ago Aug 2 | Five-year average Aug 2 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +19 | +21 | +25 | +38 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,289 | 3,270 | 2,022 | 2,846 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 13.8% | 14.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.18 | - | 2.65 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.94 | 12.21 | 11.21 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.57 | 12.53 | 12.43 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | - | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | - | 214 | 226 | 196 | 189 |
U.S. GFS TDDs- | - | 222 | 227 | 199 | 193 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.0 | 102.2 | 102.6 | 102.3 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 111.0 | 109.9 | 110.3 | N/A | 103.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 50.8 | 44.9 | 46.1 | 48.3 | 43.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 88.3 | 82.5 | 83.5 | 84.8 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 109.9 | 104.0 | 105.1 | N/A | 96.1 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 78 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 9 | Week ended Aug 2 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 7 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 48 | 48 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 19 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 15 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.85 | 1.96 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.38 | 1.35 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.85 | 3.05 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.28 | 1.35 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.70 | 1.75 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.54 | 1.50 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.05 | 2.33 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -1.44 | 0.15 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.81 | 0.75 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 35.75 | 32.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 38.00 | 39.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 33.25 | 34.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 54.50 | 76.75 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 38.50 | 54.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 38.25 | 40.00 |
Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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