Fed nods to cut, chips rebound, BoE up next
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
The Federal Reserve left Wall Street with little doubt about a first U.S. interest rate cut in seven weeks' time, but multiple cross-currents from the earnings season, Japan and China, and domestic politics all make for a noisy start to August.
The backdrop of falling rates clearly dominated on Wednesday as Fed boss Jerome Powell said a first cut could come as soon as September, putting the central bank near the end of a more-than-two-year battle against inflation just before the election.
Aided by a benign Treasury debt sale schedule, bond markets have rallied hard.
Two-year yields US2YT=RR plunged as low as 4.25%, their lowest since February and completing a drop of more than 50 basis points for July alone. Five-year yields US4YT=RR fell below 4% for the first time in four months and the 10-year benchmark is also flirting with 4%.
With further evidence of a cooling labor market as the backdrop ahead of Friday's July employment report, futures markets now price as much as 70bp of Fed easing by year-end.
The signals sent benchmark borrowing rates tumbling across the world, despite the Bank of Japan's jarring move in the opposite direction earlier on Wednesday.
And the Bank of England may also be poised to make its first cut of the cycle later today - with markets leaning to cut in what will likely be split decision among BoE policymakers. Sterling GBP= fell to its lowest in advance of the news.
With the yen JPY= stabilising somewhat just below 150 per dollar after Wednesday's BOJ-related surge, the dollar index .DXY was firmer despite the Fed optimism.
Adding to the sense of monetary easing and ebbing world growth were further signs of China's economy struggling. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell sharply back into contraction territory, its lowest reading since October and missing forecasts for a continued expansion.
That news knocked Chinese stocks .CSI300 back into the red, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 skidded more than 2% in a delayed reaction to the previous day's BoJ move and yen spike.
Although lifted by the Fed view, Wall Street stocks were also being sideswiped in the thick of the earnings season.
Chipmakers across the world rose sharply on Wednesday,aided by Microsoft's MSFT. big spend on artificial intelligence capacity despite the latter's stock stumbling on its own earnings outlook.
AI-bellwether Nvidia NVDA.O soared 13% and added $330 billion in market cap in just one day - the biggest such gain in history. Other global chipmakers advanced on reports the U.S. government may exemptfirms in allied countries from additional chip curbs on China.
And Meta META.O wowed the gallery overnight with its quarterly update, sending its stock up 7% ahead of Thursday's opening bell and steadying the ship for the so-called Magnificent Seven mega caps - which had wobbled over the past week.
The Facebook parent beat market expectations for second-quarter revenue and issued a rosy sales forecast for the third quarter, crucially indicating that robust digital-ad spending on its social media platforms could cover the cost of its AI spend.
Apple AAPL.O and Amazon AMZN.O will report earnings after the bell on Thursday.
The upshot on Thursday is that S&P500 ESc1 and Nasdaq NQcv1 futures were higher again before the bell after the prior days' index surges of more than 1% and 2% respectively.
Partly on dour factory news but also on some disappointing regional earnings, European stocks bucked that trend and fell back earlier.
Euro zone manufacturing activity remained mired in contraction in July, with output declining at its fastest pace this year, according to an updated Purchasing Managers' survey.
The U.S. equivalent surveys from ISM and S&PGlobal are due out later too.
Oil prices CLc1, meantime, held Wednesday's jump on rising Middle East tensions as the OPEC+ producer group held its latest meeting.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
* Bank of England policy decision, quarterly monetary policy report and press conference
* OPEC+ ministerial panel meets in London to review oil policy * US July manufacturing surveys from ISM and S&P Global, weekly jobless claims, Q2 unit labor costs and productivity estimates,
* US corporate earnings: Apple, Amazon, Intel, Clorox, Prudential Financial, Motorola Solutions, Microchip Technology, Consolidated Edison, Booking, Biogen, Bio Rad, Moderna, Regeneron, Cigna, Ventas, Conocophillips, Dominion Energy, Xcel Energy, Alliant Energy, Coterra Energy, Entergy, Camden Property, Kimco, Federal Realty Investment Trust, Regency Centers, Ameren, Mettler-Toledo, Hershey, GoDaddy, EOG, Gen Digital, AMETEK, Eaton, Intercontinental Exchange, WW Grainger, Southern, etc
Markets confident US rates will soon be dropping https://reut.rs/4c9zf48
Britain's inflation and interest rates https://reut.rs/3A5Asw5
Japanese yen posts best month since November 2022 https://reut.rs/3YoXHLF
US non-farm payrolls likely hit a three-month low in July https://reut.rs/3Wq4Cls
Meta Platforms revenue https://reut.rs/3LOORzC
Editing by Bernadette Baum
İlgili varlıklar
En son haberler
Bildirim: XM Group şirketlerinin her biri yalnızca gerçekleştirme hizmeti ve online yatırım platformumuza erişim sağlar. Herhangi bir kişinin web sitesinde bulunan veya web sitesi üzerinden sağlanan içeriği görüntülemesine ve/veya kullanmasına izin vermek, bu hizmeti değiştirmek veya genişletmek amaçlı değildir ve bu hizmeti ne değiştirir ne de genişletir. Bu tür erişim ve kullanım her zaman şunlara tabidir: (i) Şartlar ve Koşullar; (ii) Risk Uyarıları ve (iii) Tam Bildirim. Bu nedenle bu tür içerikler yalnızca genel bilgi amacıyla sağlanır. Özellikle, online yatırım platformumuzun içeriklerinin finans piyasalarında herhangi bir işleme girmek için bir teşvik veya bir teklif olmadığını lütfen dikkate alın. Herhangi bir finans piyasasında yatırım yapmak sermayeniz için önemli düzeyde risk taşır.
Online yatırım platformumuzda yayınlanan tüm materyaller yalnızca eğitim/bilgilendirme amaçlıdır ve finansal tavsiye, yatırım vergisi veya yatırım tavsiyesi ve önerileri ya da yatırım fiyatlarımızın kaydı veya herhangi bir finansal enstrümanda işlem yapılması için bir teklif veya teşvik ya da talep edilmemiş finansal promosyonları içermez ve içerdiği şeklinde bir değerlendirme yapılmamalıdır.
Görüşler, haberler, araştırma, analizler, fiyatlar, diğer bilgiler veya bu web sitesinde bulunan üçüncü taraf sitelere verilen bağlantılar gibi her türlü üçüncü taraf içeriğin yanı sıra XM tarafından hazırlanan içerik de “olduğu gibi” esasına göre, genel piyasa yorumu olarak sağlanır ve bir yatırım tavsiyesi oluşturmaz. Herhangi bir içeriğin yatırım araştırması olarak yorumlanmasıyla ilgili olarak, içeriğin bağımsız yatırım araştırmasını desteklemek üzere tasarlanmış yasal gerekliliklere uygun hazırlanmadığını ve bu amacın güdülmediğini, aynı şekilde ilgili yasalar ve mevzuatlar kapsamında pazarlama iletişimi olarak değerlendirileceğini dikkate almalı ve kabul etmelisiniz. Buradan erişebileceğiniz Bağımsız Olmayan Yatırım Araştırması Bildirimimizi ve yukarıdaki bilgilerle ilgili Risk Uyarımızı okuduğunuzdan ve anladığınızdan emin olun.
