Dollar slumps ahead of payrolls revisions, Powell speech
Updated at 1500 EDT
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, Aug 20 (Reuters) -The dollar fell to its lowest level since January on Tuesday as investors awaited revisions to U.S. payrolls data on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming later in the week.
Goldman Sachs economists expectthat 600,000 to 1 million fewer jobs were created from April 2023 to March 2024 than previously reported.
A downward revision of 1 million jobs would mean1.6 million jobs were created in that period, down from the 2.6 million initially reported, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
The prospect of a weaker labor market is why traders continue to price in the potential for a 50-basis-point cut in September,Chandler said. "People thought the Fed was behind the curve in raising rates, and now many people think the Fed is behind the curve in cutting rates."
Traders reduced bets that the Fed would cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point at its Sept. 17-18 meeting following hotter-than-expected shelter inflation and strong retail sales in July.
Weaker-than-expected jobs data could increase concerns abouta potentially worse economic downturn than the expected"soft landing" in which inflation is tamed without a recession.
Traders in early August aggressively priced for imminent rate cuts after weaker-than-anticipated job growth and an unexpected increase in the July unemployment rate raised concerns about a possible recession.
A 50-basis-point rate cut in September is seen as having about a 28% probability, with a 25-basis-point reduction seen as 72% likely, accordingto CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders are pricing in around 222 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025. FEDWATCH
Traders will focus on Powell's comments on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole economic symposium for any new clues on the likely size of a rate cut next month, and whether borrowing costs are likely to be loweredat each subsequent Fed meeting.
With the August employment report and key inflation data due to be released before the Fed's next meeting, Powell may be reluctant on Friday to offer much clarity on the outlook for rates.
A slim majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining three meetings of 2024.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday sheremains cautious about any shift in the U.S. central bank's policy because of what she sees as continued upside risks for inflation, warning that overreacting to any single data point could jeopardize the progress already made.
The Fed is also due to release the minutes from its July 30-31 meeting on Wednesday.
DOLLAR BROADLY LOWER
The dollar index =USD was last down 0.42% at 101.44, itslowest level since Jan. 2. The euro EUR=EBS rose 0.31% to $1.1119, its strongest since Dec. 28.
Sterling GBP=D3 was up 0.29% at $1.3026 after reaching $1.3054, thehighest level since July 2023.
The dollar weakened 0.82% to 145.36Japanese yen JPY=EBS a day after hitting145.20, the lowest level since Aug. 7.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to discuss the central bank'sdecision last month to raise interest rates when he appears in parliament on Friday.
Data next week is expected to show Japan's consumer inflation rate picked up in July for a third consecutive month, a Reuters poll of 18 economists showed, keeping the central bank on course to consider another rate hike after lifting short-term rates to 0.25% last month.
Sweden's crown rose despite a rate cut by the Swedish central bank. It also said it could speed up the policy easing if price pressures did not pick up.
It was last up 1.24% versus the dollar at 10.206SEK= and reached 10.194,the strongest level since March 12.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin BTC= gained 0.11% to $59,173.
Sweden's inflation and interest rates https://reut.rs/4fPgqX8
Hiring continues to slow Hiring continues to slow https://tmsnrt.rs/3deZoGA
Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Paul Simao and Richard Chang
İlgili varlıklar
En son haberler
Bildirim: XM Group şirketlerinin her biri yalnızca gerçekleştirme hizmeti ve online yatırım platformumuza erişim sağlar. Herhangi bir kişinin web sitesinde bulunan veya web sitesi üzerinden sağlanan içeriği görüntülemesine ve/veya kullanmasına izin vermek, bu hizmeti değiştirmek veya genişletmek amaçlı değildir ve bu hizmeti ne değiştirir ne de genişletir. Bu tür erişim ve kullanım her zaman şunlara tabidir: (i) Şartlar ve Koşullar; (ii) Risk Uyarıları ve (iii) Tam Bildirim. Bu nedenle bu tür içerikler yalnızca genel bilgi amacıyla sağlanır. Özellikle, online yatırım platformumuzun içeriklerinin finans piyasalarında herhangi bir işleme girmek için bir teşvik veya bir teklif olmadığını lütfen dikkate alın. Herhangi bir finans piyasasında yatırım yapmak sermayeniz için önemli düzeyde risk taşır.
Online yatırım platformumuzda yayınlanan tüm materyaller yalnızca eğitim/bilgilendirme amaçlıdır ve finansal tavsiye, yatırım vergisi veya yatırım tavsiyesi ve önerileri ya da yatırım fiyatlarımızın kaydı veya herhangi bir finansal enstrümanda işlem yapılması için bir teklif veya teşvik ya da talep edilmemiş finansal promosyonları içermez ve içerdiği şeklinde bir değerlendirme yapılmamalıdır.
Görüşler, haberler, araştırma, analizler, fiyatlar, diğer bilgiler veya bu web sitesinde bulunan üçüncü taraf sitelere verilen bağlantılar gibi her türlü üçüncü taraf içeriğin yanı sıra XM tarafından hazırlanan içerik de “olduğu gibi” esasına göre, genel piyasa yorumu olarak sağlanır ve bir yatırım tavsiyesi oluşturmaz. Herhangi bir içeriğin yatırım araştırması olarak yorumlanmasıyla ilgili olarak, içeriğin bağımsız yatırım araştırmasını desteklemek üzere tasarlanmış yasal gerekliliklere uygun hazırlanmadığını ve bu amacın güdülmediğini, aynı şekilde ilgili yasalar ve mevzuatlar kapsamında pazarlama iletişimi olarak değerlendirileceğini dikkate almalı ve kabul etmelisiniz. Buradan erişebileceğiniz Bağımsız Olmayan Yatırım Araştırması Bildirimimizi ve yukarıdaki bilgilerle ilgili Risk Uyarımızı okuduğunuzdan ve anladığınızdan emin olun.