WARSAW, July 23 (Reuters) -The forint backed off a 1-1/2 month high on Tuesday ahead of a Hungarian central bank interest rate decision that could see a continuation of a long-running easing cycle, or the first pause in cuts.

Respondents in a Reuters poll narrowly expect Hungary's central bank to deliver its 15th consecutive rate cut, lowering its base rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, although the analysts were almost evenly split between the cut and a first pause in easing in more than a year.

By 0946 GMT the Hungarian forint EURHUF= slipped 0.2% against the euro to 390.20, retreating from its strongest standing since early June hit on Monday.

ING analysts leaned towards a rates pause, but noted the odds of a 25 basis point reduction were nearly equal.

"Of course, the downside surprise in inflation, the strongest forint since late May, and the dovish shift in the global story will make it tempting for the central bank to cut," ING said in a note.

Earlier this month, data showed Hungary's headline inflation easing more than expected in June to an annual 3.7%, after its two-month rebound, as price growth subsides from its early 2023 peak of 25.7%, the highest rate in any EU country.

ING analysts added that regardless of the rate-setters' decision, dovish rhetoric expected from the central bank should be negative for the forint.

"HUF seems overvalued for some time, and today may show its true value," ING said.

The Czech crown EURCZK= retreated 0.3% to 25.3350 per euro, as Czech central bank (CNB) Vice-Governor Jan Frait said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency that he could not rule out another 50-basis-point interest rate cut when policymakers meet next week.

The CNB has cut its main two-week repo rate by 225 basis points since December to 4.75%, surprising some at the last meeting in June by delivering a fourth straight 50-bp reduction before signalling a likely slowdown in the pace of easing.

Czech inflation has returned to the bank's 2% target and is seen holding this year below 3%, the upper end of the bank's tolerance band.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= edged 0.1% lower to 4.2835 per euro

"The EUR/PLN exchange rate fluctuates around the level of 4.28 and even published data from the domestic economy has no impact on quotations," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.

"The stabilization of PLN rates is also supported by the low volatility of the eurodollar, despite the dynamic situation on the American political scene."

Data on Monday showed Polish retail sales growing by less than expected in June, as consumers remained cautious about the cost of living even with wages rising strongly.

Poland is betting on a wage growth-driven consumer revival to underpin its economic recovery in 2024.

Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Sharon Singleton

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