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US Open Note – Dollar eases awaiting new market movers; Turkish lira plummets

Posted on November 18, 2021 at 1:57 pm GMT

Initial jobless claims come out; dollar still falling US jobless claims declined by one thousand in the week ending November 13th, a new pandemic low as the labor market continues to slowly recover from the coronavirus hit. The US dollar index is continuing the selling interest that started on Thursday, flirting with 95.60. Dollar/yen is hovering above 114.00 after posting a new high yesterday. Euro/dollar is jumping above the 16-month low of 1.1263, recouping some losses, while pound/dollar is approaching 1.3500. US stock futures are heading for a [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar continues march higher after the US retail sales release

Posted on November 16, 2021 at 2:04 pm GMT

US retail sales ticks up US retail sales are the highlight of today. The figure climbed by 1.7% m/m for October as compared to 0.8% in the previous month, driving the greenback higher. Despite supply issues and delivery delays, there is a strong belief that customers will begin their holiday shopping earlier this year. Vice President Biden has made his selection for the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell is the most qualified candidate, even though Brainard has [..]

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US Open Note – Greenback slips as Fed tapering starts

Posted on November 15, 2021 at 2:04 pm GMT

Fed tapering begins According to the FOMC meeting of November 2-3, tapering will begin this week as planned. The New York Fed announced its modified bond-purchase schedule last week, confirming that tapering will start this month. Until June, the Federal Reserve intends to keep reducing its purchases by $15 billion each month. There is a possibility of a change in tapering speed, but the Fed has indicated that it will only do so if it is necessary. Futures for the Fed Funds rate are still pricing in a Q2 liftoff of roughly two-thirds, while [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar turns down after printing new highs

Posted on November 12, 2021 at 1:46 pm GMT

Eyes on JOLTS job openings ahead of inflation expectations There is a scarcity of fresh information today. The JOLTS job openings for September and the preliminary November consumer mood index from the University of Michigan will be released later in the day. The results of the JOLTS survey should demonstrate that supply of workets continues to be the most pressing issue in the labor market. These are generally second-tier economic data from the United States, but they may garner more attention this time around because [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar still holds in negative territory after US PPI

Posted on November 9, 2021 at 2:16 pm GMT

Calm day with US core PPI  Across the board, this week’s data has been strong but not so important. The market has instead been focused on central banks, with both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meeting last week. The FOMC voted to taper immediately in November, with a $15bn reduction per month in purchases, which implies asset purchases would end completely by June 2022. Markets are continuing to price in a Fed lift-off that occurs sooner than the Fed desires. Even though many Federal [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar eases at the beginning of the week

Posted on November 8, 2021 at 2:01 pm GMT

FX arena remains calm As the new week gets underway, the outlook for the dollar is slightly negative. Having initially climbed on Friday, the dollar index later declined from the 94.62 high and has since remained negative. The euro, which has remained heavy following last week’s unsuccessful drop below the $1.1525 level, is still moving near $1.1570 with weak momentum. On Friday, the pound challenged the support near $1.3410, where it was unable to break through. A clean break below would set up a test of the December 2020 low of $1.3135, which would be a significant step forward. [..]

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US Open Note – Bank of Canada takes center stage; dollar loses momentum

Posted on October 27, 2021 at 1:11 pm GMT

BoC rate decision coming up The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is the main event of the day. Policymakers are predicted to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%. Economic growth has fired up, inflation is hot, businesses are feeling optimistic, the housing market is booming, and oil prices continue to climb. Macroeconomic projections that will be updated may provide some hints. The CPI for September came in at 4.4% year on year, more than double the target of 2% and significantly higher than the intended range of 1-3%. Retail sales and employment data [..]

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US Open Note – Calm day ahead of busy week; oil around $85

Posted on October 25, 2021 at 1:00 pm GMT

US futures near new highs; Facebook releases its earnings Today’s economic calendar is light, but the rest of the week promises to be very interesting, with central bank meetings in the Eurozone, Canada, and Japan, as well as earnings reports from the technology industry’s heavy hitters. Facebook will launch the earnings campaign immediately following Wall Street’s closing bell. It is somewhat bizarre to watch US futures trading marginally lower from their all-time highs, even as inflation predictions continue to rise. If the tech sector earnings approve, the [..]

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US Open Note – Yen still plunges; oil heads towards $82.00

Posted on October 15, 2021 at 1:07 pm GMT

Dollar index on mute today; US retail sales surprised The dollar index is hovering around 94.00 today, following two red days; however, dollar/yen is heading sharply higher towards a fresh three-year high around 114.20 due to a weakened Japanese yen. US retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% for September versus an upwardly revised 0.9% the prior month. A dovish Bank of Japan and growing 2-year U.S.-Japan rate differentials continue to be important factors. US futures are suggesting another positive day, after strong earnings releases. The single currency [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar remains stable after CPI and before FOMC Minutes

Posted on October 13, 2021 at 1:11 pm GMT

US CPI data jumps to 13-year high; dollar still firm The main event today was the release of the US CPI data ahead of the FOMC minutes later in the session. The annual inflation rate increased to a 13-year high of 5.4%, up from 5.3% in August and beyond market estimates of 5.3%. Consumer prices increased by 0.4% monthly, slightly exceeding predictions of 0.3%. The dollar seems to be keeping its recent gains. USD/JPY is holding below the 34-month high of 113.70. However, the euro is recouping some losses, trading near $1.1565, after [..]

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