All Articles Tagged - USDJPY

Volatility drops across the board after the Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Posted on September 24, 2024 at 10:47 am GMT

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar underperforms Volatility in commodities stays elevated, led by gold Stock indices experience decent volatility despite the rally Euro/dollar volatility has eased a bit over the past week, as the market digested the strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has dropped aggressively lower, as the yen surrendered part of its recent sizeable gains, despite the fact that the BoJ maintained the chances of another rate hike in 2024. Volatility in the commodities’ space remains elevated [..]

Stocks’ positive reaction might continue until the second Fed rate cut – Special Report

Posted on September 20, 2024 at 10:02 am GMT

The Fed announced its first rate cut with a relatively balanced rhetoric History points to a high probability of back-to-back moves Dollar/yen and Treasury yields tend to drop until the second rate cut Barring a major event, stocks’ positive performance could continue The Fed commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in aggressive fashion by announcing an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps. The markets were surprised with the US dollar suffering the most. Both the accompanying policy statement [..]

Week Ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

Posted on September 20, 2024 at 9:57 am GMT

SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation September flash PMIs to do the rounds; spotlight on euro area SNB to keep trimming as strong franc bites The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be the final major central bank to announce its policy decision in September. Like the Fed, there is a substantial degree of [..]

Daily Comment – Markets digest Fed decision; BoE and BoJ stand pat

Posted on September 20, 2024 at 8:38 am GMT

Dollar tumbles on bets of more aggressive Fed rate cuts BoE keeps rates steady, reiterating caution about future cuts BoJ stands pat, Ueda says more rate hikes are coming S&P 500, Dow Jones and gold hit new record highs Fed outcome allows risk-on trading The dollar tumbled against all but two of its major counterparts on Thursday, with the main gainers being the risk-linked currencies, the aussie and the kiwi. The greenback gained some ground versus the safe havens, the [..]

Quick Brief – BoJ stands pat

Posted on September 20, 2024 at 6:30 am GMT

BoJ holds rates steady but open to more rate hikes Yen benefits from upbeat policy statement The Bank of Japan unanimously held rates unchanged at today’s meeting, fully confirming market expectations. However, the statement on monetary policy kept the door open to further tightening by stating that the BoJ expects a gradual increase in underlying inflation with the medium- and long-term inflation expectations also seen rising. The market continues to price in 8bps of additional tightening by year-end. One of [..]

Daily Comment – Fed goes big with first rate cut; BoE takes the torch

Posted on September 19, 2024 at 8:29 am GMT

Fed lowers interest rates by 50bps New dot plot signals another 50bps cuts by December Wall Street closes in the red, futures point to higher open BoE and BoJ take the central bank torch It has begun! The Fed decided to kickstart this easing cycle with a bold 50bps rate cut, and to flag more reductions before the turn of the year. The new dot plot pointed to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024, which translates [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY flirts with 142.00 but remains bearish

Posted on September 18, 2024 at 12:11 pm GMT

USDJPY bounces off 14-month low Remains well above uptrend line MACD and RSI still beneath their mid-points USDJPY rebounded off the 14-month low of 139.56 but is still heading down a few hours before the Fed decision. The price has lost more than 13% since it peaked at 161.94 in July. Technically, the MACD oscillator is standing marginally above its trigger line below the zero level, while the RSI is sloping down beneath the neutral threshold of 50. If the [..]

Daily Comment – Let the Fed rate cuts begin

Posted on September 18, 2024 at 8:15 am GMT

Dollar trades indecisively ahead of important Fed decision Investors assign a strong 60% chance for a 50bps cut Wall Street and gold traders also on the edge of their seats Pound rebounds on sticky UK inflation Fed to press the rate cut button The dollar rebounded against most of its major peers on Tuesday but resumed its slide early today as traders appear reluctant to assume a clear direction ahead of the very important Fed decision later today, when the [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY poised for a new bullish wave; will it succeed?

Posted on September 18, 2024 at 8:02 am GMT

USDJPY sets the ground for a bullish reversal, but it’s still trapped below key resistance Technical signals cannot rule out more bearish actions; sellers wait below 140 Fed to deliver its first rate cut in four years at 18:00 GMT USDJPY turned green on Tuesday, marking its best daily session in a month after securing a solid base around the 140 number. The time has finally come for the Fed to make a crucial decision between a 25bps or [..]

Quick Brief – US retail sales surprise to the upside

Posted on September 17, 2024 at 1:27 pm GMT

Retail sales rose by 0.1% m/m versus 1.1% before Retail control group up 0.3% m/m as projected Dollar gains some ground Following an upwardly revised 1.1% spike in July, retail sales in the US increased by 0.1% month-over-month in August, surpassing estimates of a 0.2% fall. The retail sales control group remained unchanged at 0.3%. The retail sales data is crucial as it reflects consumer demand, which is a key factor in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. Market pricing indicates a 67% chance that the Fed will [..]

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