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Market Comment – Weaker US CPI sends US stocks into a tailspin

Posted on July 12, 2024 at 7:36 am GMT

Top US stocks fall despite the weaker CPI report Dollar suffers but euro/dollar fails to make significant gains Gold climbs above the $2,400 level again Yen benefits from dollar weakness and possible intervention The September Fed rate cut is a step closer  The US inflation report for June managed to produce a downside surprise. Despite the headline figure failing to breach the 3% level, the first negative month-on-month change since June 2020 and lower shelter CPI print allowed the market [..]

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Market Comment – Wounded dollar awaits inflation numbers

Posted on July 11, 2024 at 7:57 am GMT

Powell’s testimony dents the dollar US CPI data could deepen the wounds Pound gains as BoE’s Pill dampens August cut bets Wall Street at new highs, gold gains as well Dollar softens ahead of CPI data The US dollar drifted south against most of its major peers on Wednesday, gaining some ground only against the yen, the franc, and the kiwi. What may have allowed dollar traders to maintain their short positions was Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services [..]

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Market Comment – Stocks undaunted by Powell’s mixed tone

Posted on July 10, 2024 at 7:55 am GMT

US stocks rally continues after Chairman Powell’s comments French developments and ECB doves keep euro in check China reacts to bond market rally, but real issues persist Kiwi under pressure as RNBZ turns dovish US stocks rally despite Powell’s lack of dovish shift Fed Chairman Powell kept the cards close to his chest regarding the timing of the much-expected rate cut at yesterday’s Senate testimony, but he managed to satisfy the Fed doves by stating that considerable progress has been made [..]

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Market Comment – Spotlight falls on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony

Posted on July 9, 2024 at 8:32 am GMT

Dollar stays on the back foot ahead of Powell Euro gains ground after French vote Yen steady as BoJ discusses bond purchases Wall Street extends rally, gold pulls back Traders lock gaze on Powell’s testimony The dollar continued losing ground against most of its major counterparts on Monday, gaining somewhat only against the franc and the kiwi. With no major catalysts to drive the world’s reserve currency yesterday, traders may have maintained some of their short positions initiated after Friday’s [..]

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Lower FX volatility as equities appear agitated – Volatility Watch

Posted on July 9, 2024 at 6:51 am GMT

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses has dropped a bit as the weaker US data prints have provided some breathing space to the ailing [..]

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Market Comment – Dollar slides on jobs data, Euro dips on French gridlock

Posted on July 8, 2024 at 8:12 am GMT

US jobs data confirms bets of two Fed rate cuts Dollar slides ahead of Powell testimony, US CPI numbers Euro gaps down as French election results in hung parliament Wall Street at fresh records, gold jumps, oil pulls back US labor market shows signs of weakness The US dollar fell against all but one of its major counterparts on Friday, with the only exception being the Canadian dollar. Although Friday’s jobs data revealed that the economy added more jobs than [..]

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Q2 Earnings season: A strong test for stretched valuations – Stock Markets

Posted on July 3, 2024 at 1:00 pm GMT

Earnings parade unofficially starts on July 12 with major US banks S&P 500 profit growth forecast at 10.6% y/y, all eyes on tech results Asymmetric risks due to rosy valuations and optimistic earnings projections Stellar first half Undoubtedly, the US stock markets had another astonishing quarter and a roaring first half of the year as the US economy seems to be headed for a soft landing. It has been more than 21 months now since the stock market experienced a sizable [..]

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Market Comment – Market craves dovish Fedspeak as US stocks reach new highs

Posted on July 3, 2024 at 8:16 am GMT

US stocks rally after Chairman Powell’s comments Focus on key US data today ahead of Thursday’s bank holiday Dovish ECB commentary to keep euro under pressure Dollar/yen rally continues US stocks rally after Powell’s comments The ECB-dominated forum held in Sintra, Portugal, managed to produce market-moving headlines for the Fed. Chairman Powell’s comment that “we are back in a disinflationary environment” resulted in a strong rally in the US equities. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded new all-time [..]

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Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Posted on July 2, 2024 at 6:50 am GMT

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April intervention. In the meantime, volatility in both gold and silver has eased considerably despite the [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index charts a double top pattern

Posted on July 1, 2024 at 3:36 pm GMT

US 500 index pauses record rally around 5,520 Technical indicators signal more weakness ahead Sellers could take control below 5,395   The US 500 stock index (cash) opened on the negative side on Monday to test the 5,450 region, which seems to be the neckline of a bearish double top pattern. The RSI and the MACD cannot discount the possibility of a bearish continuation as the former has changed course to the downside after peaking in the overbought zone and [..]

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