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US500cash

Daily Market Comment – Stock markets tank but FX doesn’t get the memo

Posted on February 18, 2022 at 9:58 am GMT

Equities get hammered until US-Russia meeting calms some nerves Yen advances but broader FX market almost immune to tensions Iran nuclear deal draft keeps oil in check, Fed speakers in focus Geopolitics running the show A series of reports about shelling attacks between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists injected another dose of uncertainty into global markets. Equities suffered the most damage, with the tech-packed Nasdaq losing almost 3% as traders unloaded riskier assets.  By contrast, safe havens came back [..]

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US Open Note – Market sentiment remains fragile as investors eye Ukraine escalation

Posted on February 17, 2022 at 1:37 pm GMT

Dollar stuck between opposing directional forces The ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia continue to be the main driving force behind market moves today as yesterday’s signs of de-escalation have completely evaporated. Specifically, the two sides are exchanging accusations over violations of ceasefire near the Eastern-Ukrainian borders, triggering risk-off sentiment in the markets. However, the dollar is trading flat on the day, failing to capitalize on the increasing risk aversion. Apart from this, the cautiously hawkish FOMC minutes released yesterday, alongside the retreat in US Treasury yields today seem [..]

Daily Market Comment – Markets rattled by reports of shelling in Ukraine

Posted on February 17, 2022 at 10:15 am GMT

Reports of skirmishes on Ukrainian border revive the geopolitical trade  Stocks cannot sustain boost from Fed minutes, oil and gold recover Dollar and yen come back to life, risk sentiment in the driver’s seat Ukraine conflict heats up Geopolitical worries have taken investors on a wild roller coaster ride this week, which is still going. The tranquility that markets enjoyed yesterday came to an abrupt end after Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine accused government forces of opening fire on them. Ukraine’s [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 battles with 200-SMA as bias turns cautiously bullish

Posted on February 17, 2022 at 8:56 am GMT

The US 500 stock index (cash) has been in a recovery mode since its short-term decline halted at the seven-month low of 4,220. Although the index’s upside move experienced a minor pullback, the near-term picture seems to be improving and the price is currently pivoting near its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The momentum indicators further confirm that bullish forces have re-emerged. The stochastic oscillator is sloping upwards after posting a bullish cross, while the MACD histogram is found above [..]

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US Open Note – FOMC minutes next on the radar; Canada CPI surprises

Posted on February 16, 2022 at 2:05 pm GMT

US retail sales beat estimates; FOMC minutes next on the agenda The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting are on investor’s radar today and will be looking for details on its plans to reduce its enormous balance sheet and raise interest rates in 2022, as well as its evolving outlook on inflation. At the meeting on January 25-26, policymakers agreed that raising the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate from near-zero would be “soon appropriate” and discussed the future of the $9 trillion in securities owned by the central bank. [..]

Daily Market Comment – Cooling Ukraine tensions revive the euro and stocks

Posted on February 16, 2022 at 10:12 am GMT

Signs of de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis spark relief rally Stock markets and euro storm back, gold and oil prices retreat Fed minutes and US retail sales eyed – is the dollar rally exhausted? Risk appetite comes back  A sense of optimism has returned to global markets following reports that Russia has withdrawn some forces from the border with Ukraine. Equity markets came back swinging as traders priced out geopolitical risk and loaded up on riskier assets again, betting that [..]

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US Open Note – Risk sentiment improves on Russia-Ukraine de-escalation signs

Posted on February 15, 2022 at 1:59 pm GMT

Dollar retreats but risk-sensitive currencies shine on geopolitics The latest geopolitical developments seem to be the main market-moving factor in today’s trading session. Specifically, Russia announced that several military drills near the Ukrainian border have ended and some troops have already returned to their military bases on the mainland. This headline relieved investors’ fears about a severe military confrontation and triggered a solid rebound in risky assets while causing a sell-off in traditional safe havens. Following that news, the dollar started [..]

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Daily Market Comment – Markets continue to trade geopolitics

Posted on February 15, 2022 at 10:16 am GMT

Conflicting Ukraine headlines send stocks on a rollercoaster  Gold and oil push higher amid hedging demand, but cool off Dollar takes a step back ahead of US producer price data Lost in translation  Geopolitics remain in the driver’s seat for global markets, and it’s been a wild ride. A series of conflicting reports around Ukraine sparked all kinds of volatility in stocks yesterday as trading algorithms were apparently overloaded with headlines they couldn’t process.  It all started with the Russian [..]

Daily Market Comment – Ukraine tensions sink stocks, propel oil and gold higher

Posted on February 14, 2022 at 10:13 am GMT

Warnings of imminent Ukraine invasion send markets into a tailspin  Stocks tank, dollar and yen advance, oil breaks higher, gold shines   Meanwhile, speculation about emergency Fed action is running wild Ukraine crisis deepens Geopolitical tensions have returned to haunt financial markets. The US president called on all American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately on Friday, citing the threat of a Russian invasion that could begin at any moment. It is still unclear how much of this is political grandstanding as [..]

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US Open Note – The ‘hot’ US inflation figures rattle the markets

Posted on February 11, 2022 at 1:39 pm GMT

CPI figures drive interest rate speculation The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed to 7.5% year-over-year in January, accelerating from the previous reading of 7%. The core measure also topped consensus expectations rising to 6%, marking its largest annual gain since 1982. Commenting soon after yesterday’s inflation data release, the FOMC voting member James Bullard called for a full percentage rate hike by July, noting that he would also be open for an inter-meeting rate increase. The hotter-than-expected inflation readings fuelled speculation for a [..]

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