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What to expect from markets in the run up to US elections? – Special Report

Posted on July 25, 2024 at 12:56 pm GMT

Presidential race dominates headlines and complicates Fed’s job Equities suffered in the two months leading up to the last six presidential elections Market’s performance in the 2016 pre-election period could be a useful guide Dollar strengthened in 2016 but equities were under pressure Significant developments in the race lately  The recent gun attack against Donald Trump and US President Biden’s candidacy withdrawal last weekend have raised even more the profile of the November presidential election. As a result, the market [..]

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Market Comment – Stock market correction picks up speed

Posted on July 25, 2024 at 7:50 am GMT

Fed expectations and US election affect sentiment Euro remains on the back foot against the dollar PBoC announces a surprise rate cut Gold suffers, aussie and kiwi losses pile up Stocks’ weakness intensifies Stocks are under severe pressure as the main US equity indices recorded yesterday their worst daily performance since late-2022. Considering the fact that yesterday’s US PMI surveys were mixed, and therefore not the trigger for this move, the cause of the continued weakness in equities runs deep. [..]

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Market Comment – Dollar remains strong ahead of key data, yen surges

Posted on July 24, 2024 at 8:22 am GMT

Dollar keeps marching north, PMIs on tap Yen extends rally as traders unwind carry trades Aussi and kiwi slide on China concerns, loonie awaits BoC Stocks trade in the red, tech earnings in the spotlight Traders continue to buy the US dollar The dollar traded higher against all but one of its major peers on Tuesday and continued to do so today. The exception was the Japanese yen. With Fed fund futures suggesting little change in market expectations about the [..]

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Heightened volatility across all asset classes – Volatility Watch

Posted on July 23, 2024 at 8:56 am GMT

• Yen crosses are volatile as they retreat from multi-year highs • Volatility in oil and gold surges, Bitcoin follows suit • US equities exhibit higher volatility amid correction fears The euro and dollar pairs maintain low volatility ahead of the US PCE release on Friday and a quiet week on the European data front. On the flipside, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the pairs have been extending their latest pullbacks from multi-year highs. In the meantime, [..]

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Market Comment – Market in waiting mode as key data in sight

Posted on July 23, 2024 at 7:49 am GMT

VP Harris close to securing nominee status Dollar trades sideways against the euro Tech stocks’ reaction higher helps S&P 500 breathe better Gold under pressure, drags bitcoin lower US Presidential race hots up Incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris has apparently made a significant step in securing the Democratic party’s nominee status by earning the support of enough delegates ahead of the August 19-22 party convention. Former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, is the last heavyweight to lend her support [..]

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Market Comment – Technical outage triggers risk aversion, Biden steps down

Posted on July 22, 2024 at 8:22 am GMT

Markets in risk-off mode after outage Biden withdraws from Presidential race Gold and oil feel the heat of strong dollar Dollar rallies on haven flows The US dollar traded higher against most of its major peers on Friday, although its advance was paused today. With Fed fund futures indicating very little change in market expectations about the Fed’s future course of action, the dollar’s rally seems to have not been driven by developments linked to the Fed’s plans. Perhaps the [..]

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Market Comment – Stocks suffer a fall but not sounding the alarm yet

Posted on July 18, 2024 at 8:00 am GMT

Stocks under pressure but dollar fails to make gains ECB meets today, unlikely to produce a dovish shift Pound ignores data; yen continues to rally against the dollar Stock markets under pressure; feels like 2007 again Following last weekend’s events, the market is probably paying more attention to Donald Trump’s economic plan. Speculation about increased tariffs on Chinese goods, including high technology products, was probably one of the causes of the Nasdaq experiencing yesterday its weakest trading session since mid-December [..]

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A repeat of the 2006-07 price action could spell trouble for the S&P 500 – Special Report

Posted on July 17, 2024 at 1:42 pm GMT

Performance of key market assets resembles the 2006-07 period The S&P 500 index could experience a sizable correction The current US 10-year yield drop could have legs Yen could benefit further as euro/dollar volatility is possibly heading north Fed readies for a September rate cut  Almost one year after the last Fed rate hike, the latest developments in the US, predominantly the recent labour market report and last week’s weaker inflation prints, have probably tipped the scale in favour of [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index softly up after upbeat retail sales

Posted on July 16, 2024 at 3:36 pm GMT

US 500 stock index maintains muted positive tone Short-term bias on the bullish side; eyes on 5,680   Unlike the US 30 index, the US 500 index could not renew its record rally on Tuesday, retaining a muted positive tone around 5,650. The bulls, however, might still have their chance, especially after the close above the one-year-old resistance line at 5,600. If that floor holds, the price might attempt to push above the short-term ascending line at 5,683 and towards [..]

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Higher market volatility led by yen, gold and equities – Volatility Watch

Posted on July 16, 2024 at 6:58 am GMT

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the end-July BoJ gathering. In the meantime, volatility in gold has jumped to the highest level of the [..]

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