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US Open Note – Wall Street opens higher; commodity currencies outperform

Posted on April 20, 2022 at 2:02 pm GMT

Global stocks cautiously up Wall Street started Wednesday’s session on the bullish side, with Dow Jones gaining the biggest traction. Buying interest, however, remains relatively constraint as questions about how the cocktail of inflation and monetary tightening will affect global economic growth weigh on risk-on sentiment. Growth risks are larger in Europe, which has stronger trade ties with Russia and Ukraine than does the US, though the rapid rise in consumer prices is calling for a stimulus reduction, keeping the [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index extends its retreat below 50-SMA

Posted on April 18, 2022 at 11:57 am GMT

The US 500 stock index (cash) has been inching lower after peaking at 4,638 in mid-March, generating a clear structure of lower highs and lower lows. Although the price decline has currently paused at the lower Bollinger band, the technical picture seems to be deteriorating for the index. The momentum indicators suggest that selling interest has intensified. The MACD histogram has dipped below both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is hovering beneath its 50-neutral threshold. In [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar turns lower after CPI data; oil climbs by 4%

Posted on April 12, 2022 at 1:15 pm GMT

US CPI surpasses forecast, rising to 8.5% Interest rates in the United States continue to rise. The 10-year yield traded near a fresh cycle high of 2.83% and is on course to hit the October 2018 high of 3.26%. This has sent the dollar index beyond the 100 mark for the first time in over two years but after the CPI data, it returned near its opening level, while dollar/yen is hovering below the six-and-a-half-year high of 125.76 posted yesterday. The [..]

Daily Market Comment – Euro hammered ahead of French election, gold defies the odds

Posted on April 8, 2022 at 8:28 am GMT

Euro continues to sink, cannot capitalize on hawkish ECB signals Dollar prepares to close stellar week, equities claw their way back Gold defies the trading playbook – who is the mystery buyer? Wounded euro awaits French election The euro remains the sick man of the FX arena, plagued by war, sanctions, surging energy prices, a slowing economy, and most recently the resurgence of political risk. ECB officials struck a hawkish tone in the minutes of their latest meeting, playing down [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar stands firm; ECB meeting minutes fail to move the euro

Posted on April 7, 2022 at 1:13 pm GMT

Dollar preserves FOMC boost; stocks weaker The US dollar kept its lead against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, trading almost at a one-year high. The world’s reserve currency is now set for a thriving weekly close as the FOMC meeting minutes reaffirmed the Fed’s recent sharp hawkish tone yesterday, revealing that the central bank will hit the stimulus brakes more aggressively in the coming months. In addition to a larger 50 bps rate hike, the central bank openly [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index loses ground but retains bullish structure

Posted on April 4, 2022 at 8:08 am GMT

US 500 stock index (cash) has been marching higher since the beginning of March, generating a clear structure of higher highs and higher lows. Although the price has experienced a minor pullback in the last few sessions, the technical picture suggests that the short-term picture remains positive. The momentum indicators confirm that despite the recent retreat, bearish forces have not yet managed to gain the upper hand. Specifically, the stochastic oscillator is descending, whereas the MACD histogram is currently both [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar gains and US futures mixed amid fading peace hopes

Posted on March 31, 2022 at 1:13 pm GMT

Market sentiment remains tentative as investors eye ceasefire negotiations The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are set to resume on Friday via video conference, but yesterday’s positive signs of progress seem to have completely evaporated. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated earlier today that despite Russia’s announcement to scale down its military operations and withdraw troops from Kyiv, its army has been regrouping and is ready to launch another wave of attacks. Additionally, a Ukrainian negotiator claimed that a peace agreement always involves [..]

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US Open Note – US futures gain but dollar slips on signs of progress in peace talks

Posted on March 29, 2022 at 1:06 pm GMT

Dollar retreats as risk sentiment improves; euro edges higher The ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, alongside Japan’s sanctions on Russia are the key drivers for the markets today. In the first front, there were some major positive developments, which triggered a mild risk-on sentiment in the markets. Specifically, the Ukrainian side suggested a new security guarantee, with the Russians responding that they will be scrutinizing it, acknowledging that the new talks under these proposals are at least constructive. Later, the [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index upside cools off but bias remains bullish

Posted on March 28, 2022 at 7:51 am GMT

The US 500 stock index (cash) has been in a recovery mode since it managed to find its feet at the 4,135 region in early March. Although the index’s advance appears to be pausing in the immediate term, the technical picture endorses a broader bullish trend. The momentum indicators suggest that buying forces remain in control. Specifically, the stochastic oscillator is sloping upwards after posting a bullish crossover in the overbought area, while the MACD histogram is currently above both [..]

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US Open Note – US data enhance dollar as NATO summit begins

Posted on March 24, 2022 at 2:50 pm GMT

NATO summit could set the next phase in geopolitical crisis World leaders are attending a series of summits in Brussels on Thursday, as NATO, the G7 and European Union hold crisis talks over Ukraine. US President Joe Biden will take part in all three meetings amid a backdrop of destruction in Ukraine, frozen global business transactions, and rising energy and fertilizer prices. The ongoing Ukrainian geopolitical crisis is already developing into another inflation nightmare thanks to the sanctions war, and [..]

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